California Golden Bears at Houston Cougars
Final · CW
68–86Last shot · Mantas Kocanas makes 2-foot dunk (Michael Cooper assists)
At lock: projected CAL 66.13–80.50 HOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3738856502
- Winner: Houston (90%)
- Spread: CAL +17.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 145.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)33
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CAL 66.13–80.50 HOU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseHOU +13.2 off · CAL +20.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to HOU
- RecordHOU 2-0 · CAL 2-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward HOU -19.5 / total 142.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 32 | 36 | 68 |
| HOU | 43 | 43 | 86 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:5760–74
Jordan Ross makes 9-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:4160–76
Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 6-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:1962–76
Jordan Ross makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:0262–78
Mercy Miller makes 12-foot jumper (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1862–80
Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 13-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3262–82
Joseph Tugler makes layup (Dedan Thomas Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0464–82
Jake Wilkins makes 16-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1164–84
Dedan Thomas Jr. makes 8-foot jumper
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:5466–84
Mantas Kocanas makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Ross assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2866–85
Mercy Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2866–86
Mercy Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:2068–86
Mantas Kocanas makes 2-foot dunk (Michael Cooper assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Wilkins F · #21 | 20 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 S. Yeanay F · #23 | 15 | 9 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Kocanas C · #17 | 21 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
 N. Indrusaitis G · #25 | 30 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Ross G · #2 | 27 | 15 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Manyiel Dut F · #12 | 15 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Ali F · #14 | 12 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Daubaris C · #8 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Cooper G · #55 | 29 | 19 | 6-11 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Clark G · #6 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S S. Carr G · #3 | 16 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Ruff G · #1 | 12 | 8 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Dort F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Mitrovic C · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Bakare G · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Butler G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 BJ Fisher G · #26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Sularski G · #77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 25-57 | 9-26 | 9-14 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-57 | 35-68 |
| FG% | 44 | 51 |
| 3PT | 9-26 | 6-16 |
| 3P% | 35 | 38 |
| FT | 9-14 | 10-11 |
| FT% | 64 | 91 |
| REB | 31 | 36 |
| OR | 10 | 12 |
| DR | 21 | 24 |
| AST | 15 | 18 |
| STL | 6 | 14 |
| BLK | 1 | 7 |
| TO | 16 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 22 |
| FBPs | 8 | 20 |
| PIP | 24 | 50 |
| PF | 15 | 14 |
| LL | 0 | 23 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock CAL 66.13–80.50 HOU · HOU by 14.4 pts vs CAL +17.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Wilkins · CAL
20 MIN · 2 PTSD. Gillespie · HOU
26 MIN · 13 PTSDedan Thomas Jr. · HOU
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-15 FG · 1-1 3PTMichael Cooper · CAL
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-11 FG · 5-8 3PTJoseph Tugler · HOU
STAT · 27 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-2 FTJordan Ross · CAL
STAT · 27 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-11 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
California vs Houston pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CAL +17.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day