Loyola Marymount Lions at Troy Trojans
Final/OT · ESPN+
69–74Last shot · Aaron McBride misses 13-foot jumper
At lock: projected LMU 75.15–72.53 TROY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 288101520
- Winner: LMU (60%)
- Spread: LMU -1.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LMU 75.15–72.53 TROY · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTROY +3.6 off · LMU +12.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TROY
- RecordTROY 1-2 · LMU 1-2
- Market priorBlended 70% toward LMU -1.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMU | 37 | 28 | 4 | 69 |
| TROY | 29 | 36 | 9 | 74 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2565–61
Caden Diggs makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:0865–62
Jacoi Hutchinson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0865–63
Jacoi Hutchinson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1565–65
Caua Pacheco makes layup
- JUMPSHOTOT 4:4767–65
Zion Sensley makes 15-foot jumper (All Wright assists)
- LAYUPSHOTOT 4:2867–67
Donovan Oday makes layup
- FTOT 4:2667–68
Donovan Oday makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOTOT 3:1467–70
Jacoi Hutchinson makes layup
- FTOT 3:1467–71
Jacoi Hutchinson makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOTOT 2:2867–73
Jacoi Hutchinson makes layup
- DUNKSHOTOT 1:5569–73
Aaron McBride makes 4-foot dunk (All Wright assists)
- FTOT 0:2669–74
Caua Pacheco makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LMU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Porter F · #14 | 28 | 13 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
 Z. Sensley G · #24 | 34 | 14 | 5-15 | 1-9 | 3-5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
 A. Wright G · #3 | 38 | 8 | 4-17 | 0-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Mosley G · #0 | 38 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 J. Miles G · #7 | 36 | 17 | 6-14 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Humphrey-Rembert F · #22 | 10 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 A. Sigiscar F · #97 | 13 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
 A. McBride F · #16 | 28 | 8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 A. Bare F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Miller F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 JJ Harris F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Tupy F · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Rivers F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Banks G · #41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Smith G · #40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 AJ Thomas G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Z Z. Paschal G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 69 | 27-74 | 8-40 | 7-13 | 44 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LMU | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-74 | 25-56 |
| FG% | 36 | 45 |
| 3PT | 8-40 | 7-25 |
| 3P% | 20 | 28 |
| FT | 7-13 | 17-27 |
| FT% | 54 | 63 |
| REB | 44 | 44 |
| OR | 17 | 11 |
| DR | 27 | 33 |
| AST | 14 | 8 |
| STL | 7 | 5 |
| BLK | 4 | 5 |
| TO | 7 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 7 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 20 | 8 |
| FBPs | 16 | 14 |
| PIP | 36 | 36 |
| PF | 16 | 12 |
| LL | 15 | 6 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 79 | 13 |
At lock LMU 75.15–72.53 TROY · LMU by 2.6 pts vs LMU -1.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Porter · LMU
28 MIN · 13 PTSC. Diggs · TROY
22 MIN · 3 PTSJacoi Hutchinson · TROY
STAT · 39 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-15 FG · 1-4 3PTJasai Miles · LMU
STAT · 36 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 4-11 3PTCaua Pacheco · TROY
STAT · 33 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-8 FG · 3-5 3PTDonovan Oday · TROY
STAT · 38 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-18 FG · 0-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
LMU vs Troy pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LMU -1.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day