Sacramento State Hornets at Santa Clara Broncos
Final · ESPN+
77–83Last shot · Osiris Grady misses tip in layup
At lock: projected SAC 77.17–94.63 SCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 439541376
- Winner: Santa Clara (94%)
- Spread: SAC +19.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 170.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SAC 77.17–94.63 SCU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSCU +21.6 off · SAC +8.8 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SCU
- RecordSCU 3-0 · SAC 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SCU -19.5 / total 170.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 36 | 41 | 77 |
| SCU | 45 | 38 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:0969–77
Chris Tadjo makes 1-foot dunk (Sash Gavalyugov assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3769–78
Chris Tadjo makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3769–79
Chris Tadjo makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2170–79
Joao Das Chagas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2171–79
Joao Das Chagas makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5973–79
Mikey Williams makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3873–81
Francis Chukwudebelu makes layup (Sash Gavalyugov assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1975–81
Taj Glover makes 4-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:1676–81
Mikey Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1677–81
Mikey Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1477–82
Jake Ensminger makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1477–83
Jake Ensminger makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SAC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Ciani F · #22 | 12 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 O. Grady F · #12 | 31 | 8 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
 M. Wilson G · #10 | 26 | 8 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 1-6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 L. Hughes II G · #0 | 29 | 12 | 4-15 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 M. Williams G · #1 | 31 | 21 | 5-15 | 2-8 | 9-11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
 G. Asimakopoulos F · #5 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Hunt F · #4 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Tutic F · #11 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Das Chagas C · #34 | 10 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 R. Robinson G · #7 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Glover G · #2 | 22 | 19 | 8-9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 A. Madi G · #23 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Pierce G · #24 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Nwigwe G · #8 | 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 M. Stubbs Jr. G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Anderson G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 77 | 24-61 | 9-30 | 20-31 | 42 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SAC | SCU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-61 | 29-72 |
| FG% | 39 | 40 |
| 3PT | 9-30 | 10-31 |
| 3P% | 30 | 32 |
| FT | 20-31 | 15-20 |
| FT% | 65 | 75 |
| REB | 42 | 45 |
| OR | 7 | 11 |
| DR | 35 | 34 |
| AST | 15 | 17 |
| STL | 8 | 9 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 15 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 23 | 19 |
| FBPs | 23 | 21 |
| PIP | 22 | 36 |
| PF | 20 | 27 |
| LL | 11 | 14 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 23 | 66 |
At lock SAC 77.17–94.63 SCU · SCU by 17.5 pts vs SAC +19.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitS. Ciani · SAC
12 MIN · 4 PTSC. Tadjo · SCU
17 MIN · 14 PTSMikey Williams · SAC
STAT · 31 MIN · 21 PTS · 5-15 FG · 2-8 3PTTaj Glover · SAC
STAT · 22 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-9 FG · 2-3 3PTDavid Castillo · SCU
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-5 3PTLarry Hughes II · SAC
STAT · 29 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-15 FG · 3-10 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sacramento St vs Santa Clara pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +19.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day