Tarleton State Texans at San Diego Toreros
Final/OT · ESPN+
90–96Last shot · Brett Freeman misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected TAR 71.37–77.68 USD
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 640872804
- Winner: San Diego (70%)
- Spread: TAR +7.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 148.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)36
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TAR 71.37–77.68 USD · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSD +19.3 off · TAR +18.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USD
- RecordUSD 2-0 · TAR 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward USD -7.5 / total 147.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAR | 46 | 36 | 8 | 90 |
| USD | 32 | 50 | 14 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- FTOT 2:3685–87
Davion Hill makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 2:3685–88
Davion Hill makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 1:5385–90
Chace Holley makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOTOT 1:3287–90
TJ Cope makes driving layup
- FTOT 1:3288–90
TJ Cope makes free throw 1 of 1
- FTOT 0:2988–91
Davion Hill makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:2988–92
Davion Hill makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 0:1988–94
Dusty Stromer makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 0:1988–93
Dusty Stromer makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:0990–94
Leroy Kelly IV makes driving layup (Adrian Shackleton assists)
- FTOT 0:0790–95
Chace Holley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:0790–96
Chace Holley makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TAR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Mani F · #11 | 20 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 TJ Cope G · #3 | 36 | 20 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 8-13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 K. Douglas G · #13 | 19 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 F. Emmou G · #2 | 39 | 17 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 6-8 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Kelly IV G · #4 | 38 | 19 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 7-11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
 E. Carter F · #35 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 J. Hayes F · #44 | 9 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 A. Shackleton G · #0 | 32 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
 B. Freeman G · #8 | 9 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Harris G · #7 | 17 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Vrabel F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Daniel F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Harrell F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Hutcherson G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Martinez G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Blackwell G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 90 | 27-52 | 10-25 | 26-39 | 31 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 32 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TAR | USD | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-52 | 25-65 |
| FG% | 52 | 38 |
| 3PT | 10-25 | 12-28 |
| 3P% | 40 | 43 |
| FT | 26-39 | 34-39 |
| FT% | 67 | 87 |
| REB | 31 | 36 |
| OR | 9 | 18 |
| DR | 22 | 18 |
| AST | 17 | 18 |
| STL | 4 | 6 |
| BLK | 6 | 2 |
| TO | 18 | 14 |
| TTO | 2 | 3 |
| ToTO | 18 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 20 |
| FBPs | 9 | 9 |
| PIP | 32 | 26 |
| PF | 32 | 27 |
| LL | 15 | 6 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 76 | 19 |
At lock TAR 71.37–77.68 USD · USD by 6.3 pts vs TAR +7.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Mani · TAR
20 MIN · 5 PTSS. Konneh · USD
19 MIN · 5 PTSDusty Stromer · USD
STAT · 39 MIN · 22 PTS · 4-12 FG · 2-6 3PTTJ Cope · TAR
STAT · 36 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-10 FG · 0-2 3PTLeroy Kelly IV · TAR
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-10 FG · 2-6 3PTJevon Hill · USD
STAT · 33 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-11 FG · 6-11 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Tarleton St vs San Diego pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TAR +7.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day