Queens University Royals at Loyola Marymount Lions
Final · ESPN+
96–95Last shot · Zion Sensley misses 17-foot turnaround jump shot
At lock: projected QUC 77.12–82.57 LMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 5:24 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 657650423
- Winner: LMU (69%)
- Spread: QUC +6.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 157.5 (64%)
- Score error (both teams)30
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
QUC 77.12–82.57 LMU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLMU +0.0 off · QUC +31.4 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LMU
- RecordLMU 0-1 · QUC 2-0
- Market priorBlended 72% toward LMU -4.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QUC | 50 | 46 | 96 |
| LMU | 53 | 42 | 95 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:4583–87
Aaron McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2785–87
Jordan Watford makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 4:1385–88
Zion Sensley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1385–89
Zion Sensley makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2285–92
All Wright makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Sensley assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5786–92
Jordan Watford makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5787–92
Jordan Watford makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2090–92
Nasir Mann makes 26-foot three point jumper (Avantae Parker assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2390–95
Jevon Porter makes 26-foot three point jumper (All Wright assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1493–95
Nasir Mann makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Henry assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2695–95
Jordan Watford makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0296–95
Jordan Watford makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| QUC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Parker F · #6 | 19 | 10 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 R. Ballard F · #8 | 19 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 I. Henry G · #5 | 32 | 13 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
 N. Mann G · #1 | 34 | 28 | 11-13 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 J. Watford G · #0 | 33 | 20 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
N N. McLean F · #33 | 16 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 A. Bicer F · #14 | 10 | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Jones G · #20 | 17 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Kearse G · #11 | 20 | 9 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Matusek F · #51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Osayanrhion F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Celestin F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Sullivan G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Pack G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Walter G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Wilson G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
S S. Zatari G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Crider G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Walter G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 96 | 35-60 | 6-12 | 20-29 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| QUC | LMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-60 | 31-62 |
| FG% | 58 | 50 |
| 3PT | 6-12 | 13-30 |
| 3P% | 50 | 43 |
| FT | 20-29 | 20-28 |
| FT% | 69 | 71 |
| REB | 27 | 34 |
| OR | 10 | 14 |
| DR | 17 | 20 |
| AST | 17 | 19 |
| STL | 8 | 3 |
| BLK | 3 | 6 |
| TO | 10 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 10 | 14 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 14 |
| FBPs | 13 | 9 |
| PIP | 56 | 34 |
| PF | 24 | 25 |
| LL | 10 | 12 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 50 | 46 |
At lock QUC 77.12–82.57 LMU · 2.2 pts over 157.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Parker · QUC
19 MIN · 10 PTSJ. Porter · LMU
26 MIN · 17 PTSNasir Mann · QUC
STAT · 34 MIN · 28 PTS · 11-13 FG · 5-6 3PTZion Sensley · LMU
STAT · 33 MIN · 22 PTS · 6-16 FG · 4-9 3PTAll Wright · LMU
STAT · 37 MIN · 22 PTS · 6-16 FG · 4-10 3PTJordan Watford · QUC
STAT · 33 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-16 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Queens vs LMU pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 157.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day