Illinois State Redbirds at Saint Mary's Gaels
Final/OT · ESPN+
85–90Last shot · Johnny Kinziger makes driving layup
At lock: projected ILST 70.49–76.12 SMC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 405839043
- Winner: Saint Mary's (69%)
- Spread: ILST +6.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 147.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)28
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ILST 70.49–76.12 SMC · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSMC +0.0 off · ILST +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SMC
- Market priorBlended 72% toward SMC -7.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 39 | 38 | 8 | 85 |
| SMC | 33 | 44 | 13 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- FTOT 3:3179–80
Thomas Ndong makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 3:3179–81
Thomas Ndong makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 3:0880–81
Chase Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 2:5480–83
Mantas Juzenas makes driving layup
- FTOT 2:1380–85
Mantas Juzenas makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 2:1380–84
Mantas Juzenas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 1:5280–86
Mantas Juzenas makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 1:4483–86
Johnny Kinziger makes 27-foot three point jumper (Noah Cleveland assists)
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:2283–88
Darius Bivins makes driving layup
- FTOT 0:1183–89
Jeremy Dent-Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:1183–90
Jeremy Dent-Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:0485–90
Johnny Kinziger makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ILST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Cleveland F · #0 | 25 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 C. Walker F · #35 | 18 | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
 M. Klabo G · #3 | 32 | 12 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Kinziger G · #11 | 42 | 30 | 10-16 | 6-10 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Burch G · #5 | 39 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 N. Allen F · #15 | 11 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
 L. Semona III F · #33 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Z. King G · #24 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Garang G · #1 | 15 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 M. Messina-Moore G · #9 | 32 | 16 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Szafoni F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Wolf F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Williams G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Ericksen G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Ty Blake G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 85 | 28-58 | 13-27 | 16-23 | 33 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ILST | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-58 | 34-68 |
| FG% | 48 | 50 |
| 3PT | 13-27 | 4-17 |
| 3P% | 48 | 24 |
| FT | 16-23 | 18-26 |
| FT% | 70 | 69 |
| REB | 33 | 41 |
| OR | 10 | 16 |
| DR | 23 | 25 |
| AST | 20 | 18 |
| STL | 5 | 12 |
| BLK | 0 | 2 |
| TO | 18 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 1 | 1 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 24 |
| FBPs | 15 | 15 |
| PIP | 24 | 54 |
| PF | 21 | 20 |
| LL | 10 | 7 |
| LC | 14 | 14 |
| LPCT | 60 | 25 |
At lock ILST 70.49–76.12 SMC · SMC by 5.6 pts vs ILST +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitN. Cleveland · ILST
25 MIN · 4 PTSV. Zougris · SMC
23 MIN · 16 PTSJohnny Kinziger · ILST
STAT · 42 MIN · 30 PTS · 10-16 FG · 6-10 3PTMantas Juzenas · SMC
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-3 3PTThomas Ndong · SMC
STAT · 24 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-9 FG · 1-1 3PTMalik Messina-Moore · ILST
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-14 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Illinois St vs Saint Mary's pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ILST +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day