Minnesota Golden Gophers at Cincinnati Bearcats
Final · ESPN+
63–61Last shot · Bobby Durkin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Asuma assists)
At lock: projected MINN 69.68–75.08 CIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2368361258
- Winner: Cincinnati (69%)
- Spread: MINN +6.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 144.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MINN 69.68–75.08 CIN · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCIN +12.1 off · MINN +11.8 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CIN
- RecordCIN 2-1 · MINN 3-0
- Market priorBlended 84% toward CIN -7.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 30 | 33 | 63 |
| CIN | 30 | 31 | 61 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:1148–52
Tylen Riley makes 26-foot three point jumper (MJ Collins Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:1449–52
Kyan Evans makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:0449–54
Eric Mahaffey makes layup (Tylen Riley assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3751–54
Kyan Evans makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1351–56
Tylen Riley makes 12-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4854–56
Kyan Evans makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Grayson Grove assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2654–59
Myles Colvin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Eric Mahaffey assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3854–61
Eric Mahaffey makes driving layup (Amani Lyles assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1756–61
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes 3-foot hook shot (Kyan Evans assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5258–61
Kyan Evans makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1760–61
Isaac Asuma makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0463–61
Bobby Durkin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Asuma assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MINN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Grove F · #2 | 26 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 B. Durkin F · #3 | 37 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 J. Crocker-Johnson F · #5 | 24 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 I. Asuma G · #1 | 32 | 10 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 2-5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
 K. Evans G · #0 | 39 | 26 | 11-19 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
 M. Kordel C · #4 | 14 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 N. Groves G · #10 | 22 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Palmer G · #7 | 6 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 N. Anderson F · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Mpoyi C · #55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Nixon Jr. G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Lorenson G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Tomes G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Shinholster G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Grady G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 24-56 | 8-25 | 7-11 | 40 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MINN | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-56 | 23-56 |
| FG% | 43 | 41 |
| 3PT | 8-25 | 7-29 |
| 3P% | 32 | 24 |
| FT | 7-11 | 8-12 |
| FT% | 64 | 67 |
| REB | 40 | 28 |
| OR | 13 | 8 |
| DR | 27 | 20 |
| AST | 13 | 13 |
| STL | 5 | 8 |
| BLK | 0 | 6 |
| TO | 17 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 16 |
| FBPs | 4 | 8 |
| PIP | 32 | 30 |
| PF | 15 | 11 |
| LL | 7 | 8 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 32 | 51 |
At lock MINN 69.68–75.08 CIN · CIN by 5.4 pts vs MINN +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitG. Grove · MINN
26 MIN · 7 PTSD. Iweze · CIN
12 MIN · 0-2 FGKyan Evans · MINN
STAT · 39 MIN · 26 PTS · 11-19 FG · 3-8 3PTTylen Riley · CIN
STAT · 32 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-17 FG · 6-9 3PTJaylen Crocker-Johnson · MINN
STAT · 24 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-9 FG · 1-5 3PTIsaac Asuma · MINN
STAT · 32 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-9 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Minnesota vs Cincinnati pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MINN +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day