North Alabama Lions at UC Davis Aggies
Final · MW+
79–75Last shot · Brayden Fagbemi makes layup
At lock: projected UNA 69.64–78.28 UCD
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 719166572
- Winner: UC Davis (78%)
- Spread: UNA +9.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNA 69.64–78.28 UCD · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCD +0.0 off · UNA +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCD
- Market priorBlended 86% toward UCD -9.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNA | 36 | 43 | 79 |
| UCD | 45 | 30 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4872–69
Quan Lax makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2772–70
Jalen Stokes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5473–70
Mike Evbagharu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5474–70
Mike Evbagharu makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3975–70
Quan Lax makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2776–70
Jarron Talley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2777–70
Jarron Talley makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2277–72
Connor Sevilla makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1277–73
Jalen Stokes makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0978–73
Quan Lax makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0979–73
Quan Lax makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0479–75
Brayden Fagbemi makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Carter F · #2 | 25 | 11 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Harris G · #7 | 26 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
 J. Talley G · #4 | 25 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 C. Graham-Howard G · #12 | 20 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Evbagharu G · #99 | 30 | 12 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 7-8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
 A. Osman F · #8 | 15 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Whitted F · #5 | 14 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 D. Yates F · #1 | 15 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Clark G · #23 | 10 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Q. Lax G · #0 | 20 | 19 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Gulley F · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Chaffee C · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Ndiaye G · #55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 EJ King G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Patton G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 79 | 24-49 | 10-26 | 21-28 | 34 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNA | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-49 | 23-57 |
| FG% | 49 | 40 |
| 3PT | 10-26 | 8-25 |
| 3P% | 38 | 32 |
| FT | 21-28 | 21-30 |
| FT% | 75 | 70 |
| REB | 34 | 31 |
| OR | 6 | 10 |
| DR | 28 | 21 |
| AST | 9 | 12 |
| STL | 5 | 12 |
| BLK | 3 | 0 |
| TO | 19 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 19 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 17 | 23 |
| FBPs | 8 | 14 |
| PIP | 26 | 26 |
| PF | 22 | 23 |
| LL | 7 | 13 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 10 | 81 |
At lock UNA 69.64–78.28 UCD · UCD by 8.6 pts vs UNA +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Carter · UNA
25 MIN · 11 PTSO. Suljanovic · UCD
17 MIN · 3 PTSQuan Lax · UNA
STAT · 20 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-3 3PTJalen Stokes · UCD
STAT · 28 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-11 FG · 1-2 3PTMike Evbagharu · UNA
STAT · 30 MIN · 12 PTS · 2-4 FG · 1-1 3PTIsaiah Chappell · UCD
STAT · 32 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-7 FG · 4-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Alabama vs UC Davis pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNA +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day