St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Canisius Golden Griffins
Final · ESPN+
88–49Last shot · Jerry Guerrero makes free throw 1 of 1
At lock: projected SBU 78.61–70.51 CAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 841265425
- Winner: St Bonaventure (76%)
- Spread: CAN +9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 149.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)31
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SBU 78.61–70.51 CAN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCAN +20.4 off · SBU +18.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CAN
- RecordCAN 0-2 · SBU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SBU -9.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBU | 43 | 45 | 88 |
| CAN | 14 | 35 | 49 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:4379–42
Michael Wilson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4379–43
Michael Wilson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3980–43
Akbar Waheed III makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3981–43
Akbar Waheed III makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:1982–43
Chiek Diallo makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4482–44
Dorsett Mulcahy makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3284–44
Leo Kirk makes 20-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1084–46
Will Fowler makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4186–46
Chiek Diallo makes 8-foot hook shot
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:2188–46
Chiek Diallo makes 2-foot dunk (John Ikpotokin assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1388–48
Jerry Guerrero makes layup (Dorsett Mulcahy assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1388–49
Jerry Guerrero makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SBU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Bill C · #24 | 19 | 10 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
 Z. Philipkoski G · #18 | 21 | 16 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 I. Ermakov G · #1 | 18 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 T. Au-Duke G · #8 | 19 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 A. Fulton G · #11 | 22 | 18 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
 C. Blankenberg F · #4 | 18 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Ikpotokin F · #12 | 8 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 R. Kalambay F · #30 | 15 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Diallo C · #17 | 6 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Kirk G · #10 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Heath G · #5 | 21 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 A. Lonati G · #20 | 12 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 A. Waheed III G · #3 | 13 | 10 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
 J. DeRose G · #15 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Grahovac F · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Blackwood F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 88 | 33-59 | 8-18 | 14-23 | 48 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SBU | CAN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 33-59 | 16-52 |
| FG% | 56 | 31 |
| 3PT | 8-18 | 5-21 |
| 3P% | 44 | 24 |
| FT | 14-23 | 12-24 |
| FT% | 61 | 50 |
| REB | 48 | 23 |
| OR | 15 | 10 |
| DR | 33 | 13 |
| AST | 19 | 8 |
| STL | 7 | 3 |
| BLK | 4 | 1 |
| TO | 11 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 11 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 22 | 13 |
| FBPs | 18 | 8 |
| PIP | 46 | 20 |
| PF | 19 | 21 |
| LL | 42 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 99 | 0 |
At lock SBU 78.61–70.51 CAN · SBU by 8.1 pts vs CAN +9.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissB. Bill · SBU
19 MIN · 10 PTSC. Efinda · CAN
29 MIN · 9 PTSAri Fulton · SBU
STAT · 22 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-3 3PTZach Philipkoski · SBU
STAT · 21 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-6 FG · 4-5 3PTAkbar Waheed III · SBU
STAT · 13 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-7 FG · 0-2 3PTMichael Wilson Jr. · CAN
STAT · 33 MIN · 9 PTS · 2-7 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
St Bonaventure vs Canisius pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CAN +9.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day