Northern Kentucky Norse at Saint Louis Billikens
Final · ESPN+
63–125Last shot · Ryan Tolliver misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NKU 74.70–94.20 SLU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 505271760
- Winner: Saint Louis (97%)
- Spread: NKU +23.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Over 168.5 (67%)
- Score error (both teams)41
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NKU 74.70–94.20 SLU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSLU +4.8 off · NKU +9.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SLU
- RecordSLU 3-0 · NKU 2-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward SLU -22.5 / total 168.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU | 24 | 39 | 63 |
| SLU | 56 | 69 | 125 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5758–109
JJ Apathjang makes 1-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1658–111
Yousaf Ahmad makes layup (Jermel Thomas assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4158–112
Sheek Pearson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4158–113
Sheek Pearson makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:2458–115
Jamison White makes 2-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 2:4659–115
Bryce Darbyshire makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2459–118
Elijah Strong makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaac Holmes assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4559–121
Elijah Strong makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jermel Thomas assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:2461–121
Juanma Ruiz makes 2-foot dunk (Donovan Rakotonanahary assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1363–121
Juanma Ruiz makes layup (Gabrielius Jokubauskas assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:5263–123
Jamison White makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4263–125
Jermel Thomas makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NKU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Pagotto F · #13 | 18 | 10 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 W. Shortt F · #7 | 19 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 W. Foster G · #0 | 20 | 5 | 2-14 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 E. Acker G · #2 | 21 | 9 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 B.J. Davis-Ray G · #9 | 34 | 13 | 4-15 | 2-8 | 3-5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
 J. Ruiz F · #17 | 14 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 R. Tolliver F · #1 | 23 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
 D. Rakotonanahary F · #10 | 14 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
 G. Jokubauskas G · #8 | 16 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
 JJ Apathjang G · #22 | 17 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 B. Darbyshire G · #4 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
P P. Mae F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Elliott G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 24-73 | 5-24 | 10-17 | 42 | 11 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NKU | SLU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-73 | 44-75 |
| FG% | 33 | 59 |
| 3PT | 5-24 | 18-32 |
| 3P% | 21 | 56 |
| FT | 10-17 | 19-23 |
| FT% | 59 | 83 |
| REB | 42 | 45 |
| OR | 21 | 12 |
| DR | 21 | 33 |
| AST | 11 | 30 |
| STL | 6 | 18 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 22 | 7 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 22 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 34 |
| FBPs | 8 | 42 |
| PIP | 36 | 52 |
| PF | 17 | 19 |
| LL | 0 | 62 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 96 |
At lock NKU 74.70–94.20 SLU · SLU by 19.5 pts vs NKU +22.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Pagotto · NKU
18 MIN · 10 PTSA. Michaeli · SLU
13 MIN · 4 PTSTrey Green · SLU
STAT · 26 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-8 FG · 7-8 3PTAmari McCottry · SLU
STAT · 21 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-7 FG · 1-1 3PTKellen Thames · SLU
STAT · 17 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-8 FG · 2-2 FTIshan Sharma · SLU
STAT · 22 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Kentucky vs Saint Louis pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NKU +22.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day