UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Richmond Spiders
Final · ESPN+
77–100Last shot · Tylon Chatman misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UNCA 68.35–79.57 RICH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2771132895
- Winner: Richmond (83%)
- Spread: UNCA +12.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)28
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNCA 68.35–79.57 RICH · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseRICH +0.0 off · UNCA +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to RICH
- Market priorBlended 86% toward RICH -15.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCA | 27 | 50 | 77 |
| RICH | 56 | 44 | 100 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3768–88
Aiden Argabright makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT2nd Half 3:3768–89
Aiden Argabright makes free throw 2 of 3
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3270–89
Tylon Chatman makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0072–89
Kelcy Phipps makes 4-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:1973–89
Daniel Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0673–92
Dominick Stewart makes 28-foot three point jumper (Derin Saran assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3275–92
Daniel Thomas makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2475–93
Dominick Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2475–94
Dominick Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:5377–94
Daniel Thomas makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3877–97
Derin Saran makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amon Dorries assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0477–100
Aiden Argabright makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amon Dorries assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNCA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Mayfield F · #5 | 20 | 14 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Thomas F · #13 | 27 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
 J. Lipkins G · #0 | 22 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Dunn G · #3 | 23 | 11 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 K. Phipps G · #11 | 33 | 11 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 A. Magassa F · #10 | 10 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 B. Rivers SF · #14 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Chatman G · #6 | 20 | 6 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Anderson G · #1 | 18 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
 C. Dubsky G · #7 | 23 | 9 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Q. Mansfield F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Tolentino F · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Bailey PG · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Johnson G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Johnson G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Jones G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 77 | 31-64 | 5-21 | 10-17 | 31 | 10 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNCA | RICH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-64 | 36-61 |
| FG% | 48 | 59 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 13-25 |
| 3P% | 24 | 52 |
| FT | 10-17 | 15-21 |
| FT% | 59 | 71 |
| REB | 31 | 33 |
| OR | 11 | 9 |
| DR | 20 | 24 |
| AST | 10 | 28 |
| STL | 8 | 12 |
| BLK | 3 | 7 |
| TO | 18 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 24 |
| FBPs | 8 | 18 |
| PIP | 52 | 46 |
| PF | 19 | 13 |
| LL | 3 | 35 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 4 | 95 |
At lock UNCA 68.35–79.57 RICH · RICH by 11.2 pts vs UNCA +12.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Mayfield · UNCA
20 MIN · 14 PTSJ. Kaiser Jr. · RICH
30 MIN · 16 PTSDominick Stewart · RICH
STAT · 28 MIN · 29 PTS · 9-12 FG · 4-5 3PTDerin Saran · RICH
STAT · 32 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-6 3PTKhayri Dunn · UNCA
STAT · 23 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-12 FG · 0-4 3PTKelcy Phipps · UNCA
STAT · 33 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-6 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UNC Asheville vs Richmond pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNCA +12.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day