Bowling Green Falcons at Georgia State Panthers
Final · ESPN+
76–73Last shot · Jacob Meyer misses 29-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BGSU 75.17–79.36 GAST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 255096836
- Winner: Georgia St (64%)
- Spread: BGSU +4.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (69%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BGSU 75.17–79.36 GAST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseGAST +0.0 off · BGSU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GAST
- Market priorBlended 72% toward GAST -3.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 34 | 42 | 76 |
| GAST | 34 | 39 | 73 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:0470–65
Jacob Meyer makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2171–65
Preston Squire makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0271–66
Jacob Meyer makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4671–68
Jacob Meyer makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot
- FT2nd Half 0:3172–68
Tristan Beckford makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1872–71
Jaden Jackson makes 27-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:1373–71
Zach Howell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1374–71
Zach Howell makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0974–72
Jacob Meyer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0974–73
Jacob Meyer makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0875–73
Josiah Shackelford makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0876–73
Josiah Shackelford makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BGSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Essandoko F · #22 | 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Beckford G · #0 | 27 | 12 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 2-9 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
 J. Shackelford G · #4 | 35 | 12 | 4-15 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
 M. Leach G · #3 | 32 | 12 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 6-9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 Z. Howell G · #7 | 39 | 28 | 10-14 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 C. Karel F · #15 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 P. Squire F · #13 | 25 | 8 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 KJ Torbert G · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 T. Simmons G · #1 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Cranford Jr. G · #8 | 17 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 L. Ateny F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Goins F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Staley G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Dedivanaj G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Johnson G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 76 | 27-55 | 8-21 | 14-26 | 41 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BGSU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-55 | 26-64 |
| FG% | 49 | 41 |
| 3PT | 8-21 | 15-35 |
| 3P% | 38 | 43 |
| FT | 14-26 | 6-12 |
| FT% | 54 | 50 |
| REB | 41 | 28 |
| OR | 11 | 7 |
| DR | 30 | 21 |
| AST | 12 | 15 |
| STL | 4 | 6 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 13 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 16 |
| FBPs | 11 | 8 |
| PIP | 38 | 18 |
| PF | 16 | 19 |
| LL | 19 | 4 |
| LC | 13 | 13 |
| LPCT | 70 | 21 |
At lock BGSU 75.17–79.36 GAST · 4.0 pts under 158.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Essandoko · BGSU
5 MIN · 2 PTSJ. Fredson-Cole · GAST
29 MIN · 10 PTSZach Howell · BGSU
STAT · 39 MIN · 28 PTS · 10-14 FG · 6-10 3PTJacob Meyer · GAST
STAT · 39 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-17 FG · 3-7 3PTJaden Jackson · GAST
STAT · 39 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-17 FG · 6-15 3PTDavid Thomas · GAST
STAT · 40 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-12 FG · 4-9 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bowling Green vs Georgia St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 158.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day