Akron Zips at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Final · ESPN+
75–61Last shot · Mikhail Dulkay misses layup
At lock: projected AKR 76.09–71.83 UL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 238319217
- Winner: Akron (64%)
- Spread: UL +5.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
AKR 76.09–71.83 UL · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUL +0.0 off · AKR +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UL
- Market priorBlended 86% toward AKR -4.5 / total 147.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 46 | 29 | 75 |
| UL | 29 | 32 | 61 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 7:3464–54
Jamyron Keller makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mekhi Cooper assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:5264–57
Dani Pounds makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamyron Keller assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:3165–57
Evan Mahaffey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:3166–57
Evan Mahaffey makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:0068–57
Evan Mahaffey makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1671–57
Ty Pence makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach Halligan assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5371–59
Jamyron Keller makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:2071–60
Dani Pounds makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2071–61
Dani Pounds makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3172–61
Evan Mahaffey makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4374–61
Ty Pence makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5775–61
Tahj Staveskie makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| AKR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Barre F · #5 | 14 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
 E. Mahaffey F · #12 | 33 | 16 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
 C. White F · #22 | 16 | 9 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 Ty Pence G · #8 | 34 | 19 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
 T. Staveskie G · #2 | 38 | 16 | 5-16 | 5-15 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 B. Hammer Jr. F · #4 | 20 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 M. Musiime-Kamali F · #23 | 6 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Z. Halligan F · #21 | 21 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 T. Perkins G · #6 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Oriol G · #11 | 16 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 D. Christion F · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Burton F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Wilson G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 RJ Jones G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Henderson G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Head G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 75 | 23-50 | 10-29 | 19-23 | 45 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AKR | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-50 | 18-63 |
| FG% | 46 | 29 |
| 3PT | 10-29 | 9-28 |
| 3P% | 34 | 32 |
| FT | 19-23 | 16-22 |
| FT% | 83 | 73 |
| REB | 45 | 29 |
| OR | 11 | 11 |
| DR | 34 | 18 |
| AST | 14 | 12 |
| STL | 2 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 16 | 7 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 22 |
| FBPs | 10 | 6 |
| PIP | 26 | 16 |
| PF | 16 | 19 |
| LL | 19 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 98 | 0 |
At lock AKR 76.09–71.83 UL · AKR by 4.3 pts vs UL +5.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Barre · AKR
14 MIN · 4 PTSD. Pounds · UL
30 MIN · 15 PTSJamyron Keller · UL
STAT · 36 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-22 FG · 4-13 3PTTy Pence · AKR
STAT · 34 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-12 FG · 2-7 3PTEvan Mahaffey · AKR
STAT · 33 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-8 FG · 4-5 FTTahj Staveskie · AKR
STAT · 38 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-16 FG · 5-15 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Akron vs Louisiana pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UL +5.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day