Cal State Northridge Matadors at Kansas State Wildcats
Final · ESPN+
78–95Last shot · Montana Wheeler misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected CSUN 77.32–86.75 KSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1127802745
- Winner: Kansas St (80%)
- Spread: CSUN +10.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 164.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CSUN 77.32–86.75 KSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseKSU +8.7 off · CSUN +10.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to KSU
- RecordKSU 1-1 · CSUN 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward KSU -12.5 / total 164.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUN | 29 | 49 | 78 |
| KSU | 57 | 38 | 95 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5068–86
Brock Vice makes layup (Brandon Rechsteiner assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1570–86
BJ Omot makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:5370–87
Isaiah Abraham makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3873–87
Mikah Ballew makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keziah Ekissi assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2173–90
Brandon Rechsteiner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Abraham assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1775–90
Josiah Davis makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1375–92
Montana Wheeler makes driving layup (Jaden Schutt assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4875–94
Brandon Rechsteiner makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5676–94
Mikah Ballew makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5677–94
Mikah Ballew makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2678–94
Keziah Ekissi makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2678–95
Matt Gilhool makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CSUN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Martin F · #8 | 21 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
 BJ Omot F · #20 | 30 | 14 | 6-16 | 0-6 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
 M. Ballew G · #2 | 31 | 23 | 7-14 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Davis G · #4 | 32 | 12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 B. Hicks G · #44 | 18 | 11 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
 E. Stephen C · #34 | 9 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 L. Niang C · #22 | 10 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Culberson G · #7 | 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 N. Kirksey G · #0 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Smith G · #1 | 11 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Ekissi G · #24 | 23 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Hare G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Dahan G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Gazarian G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Barbee G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. Webb G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 26-67 | 7-26 | 19-26 | 43 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CSUN | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-67 | 31-63 |
| FG% | 39 | 49 |
| 3PT | 7-26 | 17-41 |
| 3P% | 27 | 41 |
| FT | 19-26 | 16-25 |
| FT% | 73 | 64 |
| REB | 43 | 37 |
| OR | 16 | 9 |
| DR | 27 | 28 |
| AST | 15 | 22 |
| STL | 9 | 9 |
| BLK | 3 | 5 |
| TO | 17 | 17 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 17 | 17 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 18 | 17 |
| FBPs | 4 | 11 |
| PIP | 32 | 28 |
| PF | 22 | 18 |
| LL | 2 | 31 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 1 | 96 |
At lock CSUN 77.32–86.75 KSU · KSU by 9.4 pts vs CSUN +10.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Martin · CSUN
21 MIN · 2 PTSD. Lindsay · KSU
15 MIN · 7 PTSBrandon Rechsteiner · KSU
STAT · 32 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-17 FG · 6-15 3PTMikah Ballew · CSUN
STAT · 31 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-14 FG · 6-10 3PTBJ Omot · CSUN
STAT · 30 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-16 FG · 0-6 3PTJosiah Davis · CSUN
STAT · 32 MIN · 12 PTS · 2-6 FG · 8-8 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
CSU Northridge vs Kansas St pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CSUN +10.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day