Southern Jaguars at Iowa State Cyclones
Final · ESPN+
47–84Last shot · Joseph Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected SOU 57.48–89.32 ISU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3340771167
- Winner: Iowa State (100%)
- Spread: SOU +35.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SOU 57.48–89.32 ISU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseISU +1.5 off · SOU +2.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ISU
- RecordISU 2-1 · SOU 0-4
- Market priorBlended 84% toward ISU -35.5 / total 146.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 18 | 29 | 47 |
| ISU | 41 | 43 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:3833–78
Ryan Prather Jr. makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 5:3833–79
Ryan Prather Jr. makes free throw 3 of 3
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0233–82
Ryan Prather Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4636–82
Lionel Larvadain makes 25-foot three point jumper (Justin Page assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1238–82
Aaron Hall makes layup (Lionel Larvadain assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1640–82
Ibrahim Olajuwon makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4142–82
Joseph Hunter makes layup (Ibrahim Olajuwon assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2643–82
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 1 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:0745–82
Joseph Hunter makes 1-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5245–84
Anthony Rise makes 15-foot jumper (Jaquan Johnson assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3046–84
Joseph Hunter makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3047–84
Joseph Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SOU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Hall F · #4 | 19 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 I. Olajuwon C · #35 | 12 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Demory G · #6 | 14 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Page G · #5 | 12 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Amboree G · #0 | 11 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 R. King F · #23 | 21 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 L. Bell C · #10 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 N. Boyde C · #24 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Hunter G · #13 | 16 | 10 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 A. Benjamin G · #9 | 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Greer G · #8 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Parish G · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Dormu G · #3 | 22 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Larvadain G · #11 | 20 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 S. Van Dorn Jr. G · #7 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Ferguson G · #1 | 24 | 4 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Team | 47 | 18-51 | 4-16 | 7-11 | 33 | 9 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SOU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-51 | 31-67 |
| FG% | 35 | 46 |
| 3PT | 4-16 | 7-28 |
| 3P% | 25 | 25 |
| FT | 7-11 | 15-22 |
| FT% | 64 | 68 |
| REB | 33 | 43 |
| OR | 8 | 15 |
| DR | 25 | 28 |
| AST | 9 | 22 |
| STL | 11 | 19 |
| BLK | 5 | 3 |
| TO | 30 | 14 |
| TTO | 3 | 1 |
| ToTO | 30 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 38 |
| FBPs | 7 | 23 |
| PIP | 26 | 46 |
| PF | 20 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 49 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock SOU 57.48–89.32 ISU · ISU by 31.8 pts vs SOU +35.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Hall · SOU
19 MIN · 5 PTSD. Pleta · ISU
19 MIN · 14 PTSTre Singleton · ISU
STAT · 21 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-10 FG · 1-2 3PTJamarion Batemon · ISU
STAT · 26 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-13 FG · 3-12 3PTRyan Prather Jr. · ISU
STAT · 26 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-8 FG · 2-5 3PTJoseph Hunter · SOU
STAT · 16 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-3 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern vs Iowa State pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SOU +35.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day