Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Iowa State Cyclones
Final · ESPN+
57–83Last shot · Chandler Watts misses 5-foot jumper
At lock: projected USM 59.84–85.41 ISU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3323993548
- Winner: Iowa State (99%)
- Spread: USM +30.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Under 145.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
USM 59.84–85.41 ISU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseISU +9.2 off · USM +18.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ISU
- RecordISU 1-1 · USM 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward ISU -31.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 29 | 28 | 57 |
| ISU | 46 | 37 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:4152–73
Tre Singleton makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5252–75
Tre Singleton makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:3652–76
Jamarion Batemon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3652–77
Jamarion Batemon makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3652–78
Jamarion Batemon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3652–79
Jamarion Batemon makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3752–80
Jaquan Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0153–80
Camden Cerese makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1055–80
Dorion Bowen makes 11-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:1055–81
Leon Bond III makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5455–83
Xzavion Mitchell makes layup (Yusef Gray Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4457–83
DeAndre Harvey makes layup (Fallou Diagne assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| USM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M M. Blank C · #49 | 20 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
A A. Igiede G · #8 | 26 | 13 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Gaines-Wyatt G · #2 | 28 | 8 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 I. Taveras G · #10 | 18 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
 B. Weston G · #20 | 22 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
M M. Montano F · #6 | 23 | 5 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Wallace F · #24 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 M. Overstreet F · #22 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 F. Diagne C · #7 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
D D. Bowen G · #13 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
D D. Harvey G · #5 | 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
E E. Tulip G · #4 | 5 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
C C. Cerese G · #1 | 12 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 C. Watts G · #0 | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 B. Carruth G · #23 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
B B. Roberts G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
C C. Merrett G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 19-52 | 8-20 | 11-22 | 28 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USM | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-52 | 27-51 |
| FG% | 37 | 53 |
| 3PT | 8-20 | 4-12 |
| 3P% | 40 | 33 |
| FT | 11-22 | 25-36 |
| FT% | 50 | 69 |
| REB | 28 | 38 |
| OR | 11 | 12 |
| DR | 17 | 26 |
| AST | 13 | 12 |
| STL | 7 | 10 |
| BLK | 5 | 9 |
| TO | 18 | 15 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 15 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 23 |
| FBPs | 1 | 8 |
| PIP | 20 | 42 |
| PF | 26 | 19 |
| LL | 0 | 29 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock USM 59.84–85.41 ISU · ISU by 25.6 pts vs USM +30.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Blank · USM
20 MIN · 4 PTSD. Pleta · ISU
17 MIN · 8 PTSTre Singleton · ISU
STAT · 30 MIN · 28 PTS · 10-17 FG · 1-1 3PTAnthony Igiede · USM
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-5 3PTJaquan Johnson · ISU
STAT · 19 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-9 FG · 0-1 3PTBrandon Weston · USM
STAT · 22 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-7 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern Miss vs Iowa State pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USM +30.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day