San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado Buffaloes
Final · USA Net
77–66Last shot · Alex Dickeson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Barrington Hargress assists)
At lock: projected SDSU 78.48–77.05 COLO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1310929531
- Winner: San Diego St (55%)
- Spread: COLO +2.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SDSU 78.48–77.05 COLO · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCOLO +18.1 off · SDSU +13.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to COLO
- RecordCOLO 1-1 · SDSU 2-0
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SDSU -3.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 35 | 42 | 77 |
| COLO | 17 | 49 | 66 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5668–52
Tae Simmons makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3568–55
Barrington Hargress makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:1769–55
Bear Cherry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:1770–55
Bear Cherry makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3972–55
Chance Gladden makes 5-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:3973–55
Chance Gladden makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2673–58
Ian Inman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Dickeson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5575–58
Elzie Harrington makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5075–61
Ian Inman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Barrington Hargress assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3475–63
Jalin Holland makes 1-foot dunk (Goc Malual assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1777–63
Latrell Davis makes layup (Chance Gladden assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1177–66
Alex Dickeson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Barrington Hargress assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SDSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Simmons F · #8 | 22 | 9 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 B. Cherry F · #45 | 21 | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 C. Gladden G · #2 | 32 | 20 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 E. Harrington G · #3 | 33 | 8 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 L. Davis G · #5 | 34 | 18 | 6-12 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Vincini F · #18 | 18 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
 L. Skoric F · #7 | 16 | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 D. Torresani G · #0 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 I. Sy G · #13 | 19 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
 S. Mashebinu F · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Majak F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Malek G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Cornelius G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Gonzales G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. White G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Anderson G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 77 | 23-47 | 8-15 | 23-31 | 38 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SDSU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-47 | 21-57 |
| FG% | 49 | 37 |
| 3PT | 8-15 | 9-25 |
| 3P% | 53 | 36 |
| FT | 23-31 | 15-25 |
| FT% | 74 | 60 |
| REB | 38 | 27 |
| OR | 7 | 8 |
| DR | 31 | 19 |
| AST | 11 | 8 |
| STL | 7 | 12 |
| BLK | 5 | 2 |
| TO | 20 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 20 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 28 |
| FBPs | 8 | 8 |
| PIP | 26 | 24 |
| PF | 21 | 23 |
| LL | 18 | 2 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 96 | 1 |
At lock SDSU 78.48–77.05 COLO · SDSU by 1.4 pts vs COLO +2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Simmons · SDSU
22 MIN · 9 PTSJ. Neely · COLO
22 MIN · 5 PTSBarrington Hargress · COLO
STAT · 35 MIN · 33 PTS · 11-20 FG · 5-8 3PTChance Gladden · SDSU
STAT · 32 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-6 FG · 10-11 FTLatrell Davis · SDSU
STAT · 34 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-6 3PTBear Cherry · SDSU
STAT · 21 MIN · 8 PTS · 2-3 FG · 4-4 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
San Diego St vs Colorado pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is COLO +2.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day