Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Final · ESPN2
82–76Last shot · Jonathan Powell makes 2-foot dunk
At lock: projected PITT 79.24–78.11 PSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1395111816
- Winner: Pitt (54%)
- Spread: PSU +2.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (67%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PITT 79.24–78.11 PSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePSU +13.2 off · PITT +11.7 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PSU
- RecordPSU 2-1 · PITT 3-0
- Market priorBlended 70% toward PITT -2.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 42 | 40 | 82 |
| PSU | 38 | 38 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5773–68
Dasonte Bowen makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:3375–68
Baye Ndongo makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 2:2375–69
Brant Byers makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5677–69
Baye Ndongo makes 2-foot dunk (Naithan George assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4677–72
Ivan Juric makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dasonte Bowen assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3877–74
Josh Reed makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3178–74
Naithan George makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1978–75
Dasonte Bowen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1978–76
Dasonte Bowen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1379–76
A'lahn Sumler makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1380–76
A'lahn Sumler makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:0182–76
Jonathan Powell makes 2-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PITT | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Souare F · #4 | 13 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 B. Ndongo F · #11 | 30 | 13 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
 N. George G · #2 | 18 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 A. Sumler G · #3 | 39 | 26 | 9-16 | 3-6 | 5-5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Powell G · #0 | 40 | 13 | 5-15 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Foster F · #7 | 27 | 6 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 A. Mighty C · #26 | 10 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Moore G · #21 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Bethea G · #1 | 19 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 K. Gilbert F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Rudovskii F · #99 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Diomande F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Nelson F · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Mayhew F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Hawkins G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Jones G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 82 | 31-63 | 5-18 | 15-22 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PITT | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-63 | 21-50 |
| FG% | 49 | 42 |
| 3PT | 5-18 | 5-15 |
| 3P% | 28 | 33 |
| FT | 15-22 | 29-36 |
| FT% | 68 | 81 |
| REB | 28 | 37 |
| OR | 10 | 12 |
| DR | 18 | 25 |
| AST | 14 | 8 |
| STL | 8 | 5 |
| BLK | 2 | 0 |
| TO | 9 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 17 | 12 |
| FBPs | 13 | 9 |
| PIP | 48 | 30 |
| PF | 24 | 26 |
| LL | 8 | 7 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 77 | 16 |
At lock PITT 79.24–78.11 PSU · PITT by 1.1 pts vs PSU +2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Souare · PITT
13 MIN · 7 PTSR. Prkacin · PSU
31 MIN · 11 PTSA'lahn Sumler · PITT
STAT · 39 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-16 FG · 3-6 3PTDasonte Bowen · PSU
STAT · 26 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-1 3PTIvan Juric · PSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 16 PTS · 3-8 FG · 1-1 3PTBaye Ndongo · PITT
STAT · 30 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pitt vs Penn State pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PSU +2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day