Buffalo Bulls at Pittsburgh Panthers
Final · ACCNX
61–80Last shot · Drew Steffe misses 29-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BUF 67.35–83.85 PITT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1411889435
- Winner: Pitt (93%)
- Spread: BUF +17.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 150.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BUF 67.35–83.85 PITT · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePITT +20.6 off · BUF +10.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PITT
- RecordPITT 2-0 · BUF 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward PITT -17.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 45 | 16 | 61 |
| PITT | 32 | 48 | 80 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3858–66
Chase Foster makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3858–67
Chase Foster makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0358–70
Chase Foster makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naithan George assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:4158–71
Chase Foster makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4158–72
Chase Foster makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1758–74
Chase Foster makes layup (Baye Ndongo assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3958–76
Chase Foster makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2259–76
Drew Steffe makes free throw 1 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:0959–78
Baye Ndongo makes 4-foot dunk (Naithan George assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:5360–78
Drew Steffe makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4660–80
Chase Foster makes layup (A'lahn Sumler assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3661–80
J.J. Starling makes free throw 2 of 3
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BUF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Lorick III F · #9 | 20 | 8 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
 J. Pitre F · #1 | 18 | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 M. Tyne G · #10 | 17 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 D. Steffe G · #21 | 38 | 15 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 J.J. Starling G · #2 | 36 | 13 | 5-13 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 B. John F · #5 | 14 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 M. Buteliauskas F · #0 | 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Ducommun G · #25 | 33 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 K. Jones G · #12 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 JJ Frakes G · #22 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 T. Kuska F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Vigo G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Romano G · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Shao G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Reede G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 61 | 18-51 | 9-32 | 16-22 | 27 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 33 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BUF | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-51 | 20-54 |
| FG% | 35 | 37 |
| 3PT | 9-32 | 5-23 |
| 3P% | 28 | 22 |
| FT | 16-22 | 35-49 |
| FT% | 73 | 71 |
| REB | 27 | 50 |
| OR | 5 | 18 |
| DR | 22 | 32 |
| AST | 9 | 11 |
| STL | 7 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 3 |
| TO | 17 | 11 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 11 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 24 |
| FBPs | 6 | 12 |
| PIP | 14 | 28 |
| PF | 33 | 19 |
| LL | 15 | 20 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 57 | 40 |
At lock BUF 67.35–83.85 PITT · PITT by 16.5 pts vs BUF +17.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Lorick III · BUF
20 MIN · 8 PTSA. Souare · PITT
9 MIN · 5 PTSBaye Ndongo · PITT
STAT · 33 MIN · 23 PTS · 5-10 FG · 0-1 3PTChase Foster · PITT
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-10 FG · 1-5 3PTNaithan George · PITT
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 3-9 FG · 2-3 3PTDrew Steffe · BUF
STAT · 38 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-10 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Buffalo vs Pitt pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BUF +17.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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