Florida State Seminoles at Florida A&M Rattlers
Final · ESPNU
112–69Last shot · Ralph Martino Jr. misses 15-foot jumper
At lock: projected FSU 88.17–65.77 FAMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1416212031
- Winner: Florida St (98%)
- Spread: FAMU +25.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 155.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)65
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FSU 88.17–65.77 FAMU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFAMU +0.0 off · FSU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FAMU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward FSU -28.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 54 | 58 | 112 |
| FAMU | 27 | 42 | 69 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:32105–58
Marcis Ponder makes layup (Anthony Robinson II assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:07107–58
Sebastian Rancik makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Kam Taylor assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:02107–59
Jaden Kempson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:02107–60
Jaden Kempson makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:43109–60
Cooper Schwieger makes 3-foot dunk (Elise Assui assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:10111–60
Brandon Bass Jr. makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:50111–62
Ralph Martino Jr. makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
- FT2nd Half 1:40112–62
Alex Steen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:30112–63
Jaden Kempson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:30112–64
Jaden Kempson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:11112–67
Jaden Kempson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ralph Martino Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:48112–69
Jaden Kempson makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Rancik F · #22 | 27 | 25 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 S. Abaev F · #1 | 24 | 6 | 3-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 M. Ponder C · #11 | 20 | 15 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
 K. Taylor G · #3 | 26 | 15 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 A. Robinson II G · #2 | 26 | 16 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
 A. Steen F · #25 | 15 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
 C. Schwieger F · #31 | 16 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Robinson G · #00 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 JD Jones G · #14 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 E. Assui G · #10 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Barnes G · #0 | 14 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Crawford G · #15 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Bass Jr. G · #30 | 15 | 13 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Paul F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 AJ Swinton F · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lopez G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 112 | 39-71 | 8-24 | 26-34 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 15 | 32 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FSU | FAMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 39-71 | 24-62 |
| FG% | 55 | 39 |
| 3PT | 8-24 | 10-27 |
| 3P% | 33 | 37 |
| FT | 26-34 | 11-15 |
| FT% | 76 | 73 |
| REB | 47 | 30 |
| OR | 15 | 8 |
| DR | 32 | 22 |
| AST | 17 | 11 |
| STL | 12 | 3 |
| BLK | 1 | 1 |
| TO | 7 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 7 | 17 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 22 | 10 |
| FBPs | 29 | 9 |
| PIP | 62 | 22 |
| PF | 16 | 23 |
| LL | 51 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 98 | 0 |
At lock FSU 88.17–65.77 FAMU · FSU by 22.4 pts vs FAMU +25.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissS. Rancik · FSU
27 MIN · 25 PTSB. Ndour · FAMU
14 MIN · 0-3 FGJaden Kempson · FAMU
STAT · 36 MIN · 27 PTS · 9-16 FG · 4-6 3PTDaisean Williford · FAMU
STAT · 33 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-14 FG · 4-10 3PTAnthony Robinson II · FSU
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-10 FG · 1-1 3PTMarcis Ponder · FSU
STAT · 20 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-6 FG · 5-7 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Florida St vs Florida A&M pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FAMU +25.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day