Army Black Knights at Duke Blue Devils
Final · ESPNU
50–84Last shot · Deron Rippey Jr. misses 29-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected ARMY 56.74–94.62 DUKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1979486715
- Winner: Duke (100%)
- Spread: ARMY +43.5 covers (69%)
- Total: Under 152.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ARMY 56.74–94.62 DUKE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDUKE +0.0 off · ARMY +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DUKE
- Market priorBlended 86% toward DUKE -44.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 18 | 32 | 50 |
| DUKE | 33 | 51 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5342–72
Caleb Foster makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:2242–74
Cameron Williams makes 3-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 3:2843–74
Tate Laczkowski makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2844–74
Tate Laczkowski makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:0144–76
Bryson Howard makes 3-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5147–76
Kevin McCarthy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tate Laczkowski assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3547–77
Deron Rippey Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3547–78
Deron Rippey Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:0947–80
Maxime Meyer makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3747–82
Bryson Howard makes layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:5047–84
Caleb Foster makes 4-foot dunk (Deron Rippey Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3250–84
Ryan Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tate Laczkowski assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ARMY | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Holloway F · #10 | 36 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
 T. Laczkowski F · #32 | 31 | 6 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 K. McCarthy G · #22 | 34 | 17 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 R. Curry G · #2 | 35 | 7 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Ellis G · #3 | 12 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Benner F · #23 | 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 N. Ikechi F · #34 | 6 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Murans F · #12 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Green G · #25 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Watt G · #13 | 27 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Masini F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Rasmussen F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Henderson C · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. McDonough G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Cooper Jr. G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. O'Keefe G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 50 | 18-52 | 8-30 | 6-9 | 28 | 13 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ARMY | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-52 | 29-59 |
| FG% | 35 | 49 |
| 3PT | 8-30 | 4-22 |
| 3P% | 27 | 18 |
| FT | 6-9 | 22-26 |
| FT% | 67 | 85 |
| REB | 28 | 37 |
| OR | 10 | 14 |
| DR | 18 | 23 |
| AST | 13 | 14 |
| STL | 5 | 16 |
| BLK | 3 | 6 |
| TO | 24 | 13 |
| TTO | 4 | 0 |
| ToTO | 24 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 29 |
| FBPs | 6 | 25 |
| PIP | 20 | 50 |
| PF | 19 | 14 |
| LL | 0 | 37 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock ARMY 56.74–94.62 DUKE · DUKE by 37.9 pts vs ARMY +43.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Holloway · ARMY
36 MIN · 4 PTSD. Sarr · DUKE
21 MIN · 16 PTSKevin McCarthy · ARMY
STAT · 34 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-11 FG · 4-9 3PTJoaquim Boumtje Boumtje · DUKE
STAT · 19 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-4 3PTPatrick Ngongba II · DUKE
STAT · 24 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-6 FG · 0-1 3PTDillon Watt · ARMY
STAT · 27 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-6 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Army vs Duke pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ARMY +43.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day