Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns
Final · SECN+
50–98Last shot · Ace Talbert makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected GWEB 59.51–95.35 TEX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3004231485
- Winner: Texas (100%)
- Spread: GWEB +41.5 covers (69%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GWEB 59.51–95.35 TEX · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTEX +15.0 off · GWEB +13.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TEX
- RecordTEX 2-0 · GWEB 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward TEX -40.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GWEB | 20 | 30 | 50 |
| TEX | 54 | 44 | 98 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4442–89
Jamias Ferere makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jackson Skipper assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:1942–91
Amari Evans makes 2-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 2:4742–92
Joe Sterling makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:4742–93
Joe Sterling makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:4742–94
Joe Sterling makes free throw 3 of 3
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3044–94
Mikhali Pocknett makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:3045–94
Mikhali Pocknett makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5945–96
Coleman Elkins makes 3-foot dunk (Mantas Laurencikas assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4848–96
Jackson Skipper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikhali Pocknett assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4449–96
Bryson Luther makes free throw 1 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3749–98
Coleman Elkins makes 4-foot dunk (Joe Sterling assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2350–98
Ace Talbert makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| GWEB | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Pocknett F · #3 | 23 | 12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 S. Nosakhare C · #32 | 19 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 R. Wells G · #10 | 20 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Brown G · #1 | 21 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Hudson G · #6 | 17 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Skipper F · #4 | 25 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 B. Rutsindura C · #33 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 G. Tropnas C · #14 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 B. Luther G · #9 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Daniel G · #2 | 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Ferere G · #0 | 27 | 12 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Talbert G · #25 | 20 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 C. Okpara F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Gaymon G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 50 | 15-45 | 5-23 | 15-23 | 23 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GWEB | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 15-45 | 34-56 |
| FG% | 33 | 61 |
| 3PT | 5-23 | 6-18 |
| 3P% | 22 | 33 |
| FT | 15-23 | 24-31 |
| FT% | 65 | 77 |
| REB | 23 | 37 |
| OR | 7 | 9 |
| DR | 16 | 28 |
| AST | 6 | 17 |
| STL | 6 | 13 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 23 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 23 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 31 |
| FBPs | 2 | 28 |
| PIP | 10 | 54 |
| PF | 23 | 17 |
| LL | 1 | 53 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 2 | 97 |
At lock GWEB 59.51–95.35 TEX · TEX by 35.8 pts vs GWEB +41.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Pocknett · GWEB
23 MIN · 12 PTSD. Punch · TEX
21 MIN · 10 PTSMatas Vokietaitis · TEX
STAT · 19 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-8 FG · 4-7 FTIsaiah Johnson · TEX
STAT · 22 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-4 3PTMarcus Spears Jr. · TEX
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-7 FG · 3-4 FTJoe Sterling · TEX
STAT · 16 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-5 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Gardner-Webb vs Texas pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GWEB +41.5, with a 60% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day