Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Alabama Crimson Tide
Final · SECN+
68–109Last shot · Belal El Shakery misses layup
At lock: projected OAK 71.21–100.58 ALA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3275246472
- Winner: Alabama (100%)
- Spread: OAK +32.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 170.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OAK 71.21–100.58 ALA · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseALA +14.5 off · OAK +11.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ALA
- RecordALA 3-0 · OAK 0-4
- Market priorBlended 84% toward ALA -32.5 / total 169.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 29 | 39 | 68 |
| ALA | 56 | 53 | 109 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:1858–95
Belal El Shakery makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5158–98
Tarris Bouie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Cloer assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 4:2960–98
Camden Thompson makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1962–98
Belal El Shakery makes layup (Nassim Mashhour assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5263–98
Chris Fields Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:3965–98
Chris Fields Jr. makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0465–100
Tarris Bouie makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:5366–100
Belal El Shakery makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4366–103
Anderson Diaz makes 27-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0966–106
Anderson Diaz makes 24-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5768–106
Ryder Bradley makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3768–109
Anderson Diaz makes 23-foot three point jumper (TJ St. Louis assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OAK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Fields Jr. F · #2 | 36 | 15 | 5-16 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
 B. El Shakery F · #24 | 17 | 8 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 W. Kassi G · #4 | 6 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Marshall IV G · #13 | 24 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 N. Mashhour G · #0 | 37 | 18 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 N. Ahner F · #22 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Theodile F · #21 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Thompson F · #6 | 21 | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Hamilton G · #11 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Bradley G · #3 | 16 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 B. Swartz G · #5 | 6 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 H. Mashhour G · #1 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 RJ Taylor G · #10 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Hill F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Stojanovski G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Hoth G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 23-66 | 3-18 | 19-25 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 21 | 16 | 10 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OAK | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-66 | 39-62 |
| FG% | 35 | 63 |
| 3PT | 3-18 | 24-46 |
| 3P% | 17 | 52 |
| FT | 19-25 | 7-8 |
| FT% | 76 | 88 |
| REB | 37 | 31 |
| OR | 21 | 7 |
| DR | 16 | 24 |
| AST | 8 | 30 |
| STL | 9 | 10 |
| BLK | 0 | 10 |
| TO | 15 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 13 |
| FBPs | 14 | 16 |
| PIP | 38 | 30 |
| PF | 10 | 20 |
| LL | 0 | 41 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock OAK 71.21–100.58 ALA · ALA by 29.4 pts vs OAK +32.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Fields Jr. · OAK
36 MIN · 15 PTSL. Jemison · ALA
17 MIN · 20 PTSNassim Mashhour · OAK
STAT · 37 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-7 3PTAmari Allen · ALA
STAT · 19 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-5 FG · 3-4 3PTAden Holloway · ALA
STAT · 21 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 4-8 3PTTarris Bouie · ALA
STAT · 17 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-8 FG · 2-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Oakland vs Alabama pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OAK +32.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day