Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide
Final · SECN+
86–101Last shot · Diggy Coleman makes layup (Anthony Hester assists)
At lock: projected ARST 76.81–99.36 ALA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3292024091
- Winner: Alabama (97%)
- Spread: ARST +25.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Over 175.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ARST 76.81–99.36 ALA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseALA +24.4 off · ARST +18.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ALA
- RecordALA 2-0 · ARST 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward ALA -25.5 / total 178.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 34 | 52 | 86 |
| ALA | 51 | 50 | 101 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:3473–92
Amadou Doumbia makes 2-foot dunk (Royal Blue Smith assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0573–95
Brandon Garrison makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amari Allen assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3873–98
Qayden Samuels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Cloer assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:2274–98
Layne Taylor makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2275–98
Layne Taylor makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4478–98
Amadou Doumbia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Layne Taylor assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5681–98
Aaron McGee makes 26-foot three point jumper (Layne Taylor assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4081–99
Tarris Bouie makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4081–100
Tarris Bouie makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2784–100
Anthony Hester makes 23-foot three point jumper (Diggy Coleman assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0884–101
Keitenn Bristow makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2086–101
Diggy Coleman makes layup (Anthony Hester assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ARST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Doumbia F · #14 | 20 | 11 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
 D. Muon F · #4 | 17 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
 R. Smith G · #3 | 26 | 5 | 2-11 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 C. Watson G · #0 | 24 | 15 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 L. Taylor G · #33 | 35 | 20 | 7-12 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 A. Maiga F · #34 | 10 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 R. Omed F · #11 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 G. Bennett F · #6 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Coleman G · #13 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Hester G · #10 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. McGee G · #1 | 15 | 10 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
 C. Geathers G · #5 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Pyke G · #7 | 19 | 12 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 M. Sy F · #43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Ferguson G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 86 | 32-76 | 15-39 | 7-16 | 46 | 19 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 29 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ARST | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 32-76 | 27-76 |
| FG% | 42 | 36 |
| 3PT | 15-39 | 15-50 |
| 3P% | 38 | 30 |
| FT | 7-16 | 32-43 |
| FT% | 44 | 74 |
| REB | 46 | 58 |
| OR | 17 | 25 |
| DR | 29 | 33 |
| AST | 19 | 19 |
| STL | 10 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 5 |
| TO | 19 | 14 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 17 |
| FBPs | 24 | 15 |
| PIP | 32 | 24 |
| PF | 28 | 16 |
| LL | 8 | 25 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 28 | 63 |
At lock ARST 76.81–99.36 ALA · ALA by 22.5 pts vs ARST +25.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Doumbia · ARST
20 MIN · 11 PTSL. Jemison · ALA
21 MIN · 8 PTSLayne Taylor · ARST
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-12 FG · 4-7 3PTQayden Samuels · ALA
STAT · 21 MIN · 17 PTS · 3-13 FG · 3-10 3PTDrew Fielder · ALA
STAT · 20 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-8 3PTAmari Allen · ALA
STAT · 31 MIN · 16 PTS · 3-8 FG · 3-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Arkansas St vs Alabama pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ARST +25.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day