Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
TV · Spectrum Sports Net
@Model projects LAL 114.58 – 112.15 PHX · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Projected prop · Luka Doncic (LAL) 38.64 pts · 38.64 pts/game this season
At lock: projected LAL 114.58–112.15 PHX
Model vs market
Gap: +0.2 margin, +2.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LAL vs PHX
Lakers vs Suns prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects Lakers 114.6, Suns 112.2. Model win probability: Suns 42%, Lakers 58%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day