Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers
TV · DAZN IND
@Model projects IND 108.96 – 116.21 PHI · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Projected prop · Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 26.69 pts · 26.69 pts/game this season
At lock: projected IND 108.96–116.21 PHI
Model vs market
Gap: -0.7 margin, +1.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: IND vs PHI
Pacers vs 76ers prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects Pacers 109.0, 76ers 116.2. Model win probability: 76ers 73%, Pacers 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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