Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
Final · KJZZ-TV
123–108Last shot · Goga Bitadze blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 5-foot driving dunk
At lock: projected ORL 113.19–108.92 UTAH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2690203749
- Winner: Magic (62%)
- Score error (both teams)11
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Peterson points | — | 15 | 20 | off 5 |
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 25 | off 6 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 21 | 38 | off 17 |
| L. Markkanen points | — | 24 | 0 | off -24 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORL vs UTAH
The model
How this number was built
ORL 113.19–108.92 UTAH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUTAH -7.5 vs ORL -0.3 · pred margin -4.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -7.3 vs -1.4 · back-to-back: UTAH, ORL · model UTAH 112.6–116.9 ORL
- Home field+2.8 pts to UTAH
- RecordUTAH 1-11 · ORL 4-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ORL -4.5 / total 215.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 29 | 37 | 19 | 38 | 123 |
| UTAH | 34 | 25 | 28 | 21 | 108 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 3:39113–99Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 3:23113–101Brice Sensabaugh makes 6-foot two point shot (Keyonte George assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:05116–101
Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:41116–103
Darryn Peterson makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:17118–103
Desmond Bane makes 10-foot turnaround jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:14118–105
Darryn Peterson makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:04120–105
Goga Bitadze makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Anthony Black assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 54.4120–107
Jaxson Hayes makes 4-foot driving dunk (Keyonte George assists)
- FT4th Quarter 44.1121–107
Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 33.2122–107
Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 33.2123–107
Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 30.5123–108
Darryn Peterson makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ORL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 F. Wagner F · #22 | 39 | 38 | 13-23 | 3-8 | 9-10 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +10 |
 W. Carter Jr. C · #34 | 28 | 9 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +2 |
 D. Bane G · #3 | 34 | 25 | 9-16 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +16 |
 A. Morales G · #30 | 18 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -16 |
 A. Black G · #0 | 39 | 22 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 7-9 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +19 |
 N. Vucevic C · #9 | 14 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 |
 G. Bitadze C · #35 | 20 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +13 |
 C. Castleton C · #14 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
 J. Carter G · #2 | 28 | 11 | 4-12 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +24 |
 J. Richardson G · #11 | 20 | 6 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +4 |
 J. Cain F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. da Silva F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 123 | 41-87 | 18-46 | 23-28 | 45 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ORL | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 41-87 | 33-81 |
| FG% | 47 | 41 |
| 3PT | 18-46 | 14-44 |
| 3P% | 39 | 32 |
| FT | 23-28 | 28-34 |
| FT% | 82 | 82 |
| REB | 45 | 38 |
| OR | 9 | 9 |
| DR | 36 | 29 |
| AST | 24 | 21 |
| STL | 7 | 6 |
| BLK | 4 | 8 |
| TO | 11 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 11 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 14 |
| FBPs | 14 | 3 |
| PIP | 40 | 28 |
| PF | 28 | 23 |
| LL | 16 | 6 |
| LC | 19 | 19 |
| LPCT | 53 | 32 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Cleared 8.5 boards in 8 of 10 games and all of his last 5 (11, 11, 13, 9, 10) at 9.7 RPG on 34 minutes. With Banchero and Isaac out he's Orlando's main big, and Utah is without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic up front.
Model projected ORL 113.19 – 108.92 UTAH at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop F. Wagner · ORL
38 PTS · over 23.5J. Hayes · UTAH
30 MIN · 11 PTSDesmond Bane · ORL
STAT · 34 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-16 FG · 7-11 3PTAnthony Black · ORL
STAT · 39 MIN · 22 PTS · 6-14 FG · 3-6 3PTDarryn Peterson · UTAH
STAT · 33 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-19 FG · 2-9 3PTBrice Sensabaugh · UTAH
STAT · 23 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · F. Wagner Under 23.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Magic vs Jazz pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day