Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Final · MNMT
101–114Last shot · Anthony Davis misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
At lock: projected WSH 111.73–115.41 IND
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2640017987
- Winner: Pacers (62%)
- Spread: IND -3.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 225.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)13
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dybantsa points | — | 16 | 13 | off -3 |
| P. Siakam points | — | 23 | 28 | off 5 |
| A. Nembhard points | — | 17 | 17 | off 0 |
| A. Davis points | — | 21 | 21 | off 0 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs IND
The model
How this number was built
WSH 111.73–115.41 IND · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexIND -3.1 vs WSH -4.5 · pred margin +3.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -3.8 vs -6.6 · back-to-back: IND, WSH · model IND 117.6–112.7 WSH
- Home field+2.8 pts to IND
- RecordIND 4-8 · WSH 4-8
- Market priorBlended 65% toward IND -3.5 / total 227.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 25 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 101 |
| IND | 26 | 29 | 22 | 37 | 114 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 3:4493–105AJ Dybantsa makes 1-foot dunk
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:2693–108Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:4694–108
Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:4695–108
Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:3795–109
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:3795–110
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:2296–110
Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:0696–112
Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Slawson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:1797–112
Kyshawn George makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:1798–112
Kyshawn George makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:00101–112
Trae Young makes 29-foot running pullup jump shot (AJ Dybantsa assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 37.2101–114
Pascal Siakam makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WSH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Davis F · #23 | 34 | 21 | 7-20 | 0-3 | 7-9 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | -11 |
 A. Dybantsa F · #4 | 34 | 13 | 6-15 | 0-4 | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -18 |
 K. George F · #18 | 39 | 25 | 9-20 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -12 |
 A. Sarr C · #20 | 25 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 |
 T. Young G · #3 | 34 | 15 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -11 |
 D. Ayton C · #8 | 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
 B. Carrington G · #7 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
 B. Coulibaly G · #0 | 25 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +4 |
 T. Johnson G · #12 | 29 | 15 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
 K. Middleton F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Gill F · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Mann G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Riley G · #27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 101 | 37-90 | 11-35 | 16-22 | 48 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WSH | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 37-90 | 42-89 |
| FG% | 41 | 47 |
| 3PT | 11-35 | 9-30 |
| 3P% | 31 | 30 |
| FT | 16-22 | 21-24 |
| FT% | 73 | 88 |
| REB | 48 | 45 |
| OR | 15 | 14 |
| DR | 33 | 31 |
| AST | 12 | 29 |
| STL | 7 | 9 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 14 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 24 | 14 |
| FBPs | 11 | 15 |
| PIP | 44 | 60 |
| PF | 20 | 15 |
| LL | 8 | 16 |
| LC | 12 | 12 |
| LPCT | 28 | 61 |
Model projected WSH 111.73 – 115.41 IND at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop I. Zubac · IND
12 REB · over 9.5A. Davis · WSH
34 MIN · 21 PTSP. Siakam · IND
32 MIN · 28 PTSKyshawn George · WSH
STAT · 39 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-20 FG · 5-8 3PTAndrew Nembhard · IND
STAT · 34 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-11 FG · 3-5 3PTTrae Young · WSH
STAT · 34 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-10 FG · 3-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · I. Zubac Under 9.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wizards vs Pacers pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day