Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
Final · ALT2/KTVD
100–110Last shot · Bryce Hopkins makes 8-foot two point shot
At lock: projected DEN 106.89–113.70 HOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2891829367
- Winner: Rockets (71%)
- Spread: DEN +8.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 217.5 (68%)
- Score error (both teams)11
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Durant points | — | 24 | 23 | off -1 |
| A. Thompson points | — | 17 | 8 | off -9 |
| J. Murray points | — | 25 | 38 | off 13 |
| N. Jokic points | — | 26 | 25 | off -1 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DEN vs HOU
The model
How this number was built
DEN 106.89–113.70 HOU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexHOU +6.3 vs DEN +3.4 · pred margin +4.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs +3.2 · back-to-back: HOU, DEN · model HOU 115.1–111.0 DEN
- Home field+2.8 pts to HOU
- RecordHOU 8-3 · DEN 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward HOU -4.5 / total 224.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 24 | 16 | 28 | 32 | 100 |
| HOU | 32 | 22 | 23 | 33 | 110 |
Scoring plays
LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 3:5690–100Amen Thompson makes layup (Alperen Sengun assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 3:3692–100Nikola Jokic makes 9-foot two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:2092–103
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:5394–103
Jamal Murray makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:2895–103
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:2896–103
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:0696–106
Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:5398–106
Nikola Jokic makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:3298–108
Alperen Sengun makes 14-foot two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 32.598–109
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 32.598–110
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 17.9100–110
Bryce Hopkins makes 8-foot two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DEN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Gordon F · #32 | 30 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +6 |
 C. Johnson F · #23 | 31 | 8 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 |
 N. Jokic C · #15 | 39 | 25 | 11-21 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 4 | -2 |
 J. Murray G · #27 | 39 | 38 | 14-23 | 5-8 | 5-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 |
 C. Braun G · #0 | 32 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 |
 A. Diallo F · #11 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 M. Bagley III F · #3 | 12 | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -7 |
 D. Holmes II F · #14 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 B. Hopkins F · #13 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 S. Jones F · #21 | 14 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 |
 T. Brazile F · #7 | 14 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
 D. DeRozan G · #10 | 19 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -16 |
 T. Jones G · #5 | 6 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
 Z. Nnaji F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 100 | 37-83 | 8-29 | 18-25 | 39 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DEN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 37-83 | 41-91 |
| FG% | 45 | 45 |
| 3PT | 8-29 | 14-38 |
| 3P% | 28 | 37 |
| FT | 18-25 | 14-17 |
| FT% | 72 | 82 |
| REB | 39 | 50 |
| OR | 7 | 15 |
| DR | 32 | 35 |
| AST | 20 | 29 |
| STL | 7 | 5 |
| BLK | 6 | 3 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 12 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 6 |
| FBPs | 5 | 11 |
| PIP | 40 | 46 |
| PF | 18 | 21 |
| LL | 2 | 19 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 1 | 95 |
At lock DEN 106.89–113.70 HOU · HOU by 6.8 pts vs DEN +8.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp N. Jokic · DEN
25 PTS · under 35.5A. Gordon · DEN
30 MIN · 3 PTSK. Durant · HOU
36 MIN · 23 PTSJamal Murray · DEN
STAT · 39 MIN · 38 PTS · 14-23 FG · 5-8 3PTAlperen Sengun · HOU
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-17 FG · 1-3 3PTJabari Smith Jr. · HOU
STAT · 38 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · N. Jokic Under 35.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nuggets vs Rockets pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DEN +8.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day