Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks
Final · KFAA-TV
122–125Last shot · Aaron Nesmith misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected IND 110.33–114.90 DAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2875051748
- Winner: Mavericks (66%)
- Spread: DAL -4.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (66%)
- Score error (both teams)21
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Siakam points | — | 23 | 29 | off 6 |
| P.J. Washington points | — | 15 | 13 | off -2 |
| C. Flagg points | — | 22 | 43 | off 21 |
| A. Nembhard points | — | 18 | 12 | off -6 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: IND vs DAL
The model
How this number was built
IND 110.33–114.90 DAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDAL -0.1 vs IND -3.1 · pred margin +4.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.2 vs -3.8 · back-to-back: DAL, IND · model DAL 116.7–113.1 IND
- Home field+2.8 pts to DAL
- RecordDAL 7-4 · IND 3-8
- Market priorBlended 66% toward DAL -4.5 / total 227.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 31 | 35 | 27 | 29 | 122 |
| DAL | 26 | 30 | 34 | 35 | 125 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 2:45113–116Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 1
SCORE4th Quarter 1:24113–118Naji Marshall makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyrie Irving assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:14114–118
Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 1:14115–118
Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 1:14116–118
Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 3 of 3
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:02116–120
Cooper Flagg makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 52.1119–120
Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
- FT4th Quarter 38.6119–121
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 26.3119–123
Cooper Flagg makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
- 3PT4th Quarter 20.6122–123
Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)
- FT4th Quarter 18.0122–124
Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 18.0122–125
Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| IND | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Siakam F · #43 | 35 | 29 | 9-16 | 5-8 | 6-8 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | -5 |
 I. Zubac C · #40 | 28 | 16 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +6 |
 A. Nembhard G · #2 | 34 | 12 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +15 |
 A. Nesmith G · #23 | 34 | 18 | 5-14 | 4-10 | 4-6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 |
 B. Smith G · #3 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
 L. Nance Jr. F · #22 | 14 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
 O. Toppin F · #1 | 19 | 10 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Walker F · #5 | 10 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 |
 T.J. McConnell G · #9 | 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
 K. Oubre Jr. G · #10 | 23 | 14 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 |
 Q. Jackson G · #29 | 25 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +6 |
 J. Slawson F · #18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Huff C · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 122 | 43-82 | 15-35 | 21-28 | 27 | 35 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IND | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 43-82 | 43-83 |
| FG% | 52 | 52 |
| 3PT | 15-35 | 14-34 |
| 3P% | 43 | 41 |
| FT | 21-28 | 25-34 |
| FT% | 75 | 74 |
| REB | 27 | 43 |
| OR | 1 | 10 |
| DR | 26 | 33 |
| AST | 35 | 26 |
| STL | 9 | 9 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 7 |
| FBPs | 10 | 14 |
| PIP | 46 | 46 |
| PF | 25 | 23 |
| LL | 13 | 8 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 66 | 27 |
At lock IND 110.33–114.90 DAL · 2.7 pts over 222.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp C. Flagg · DAL
43 PTS · over 25.5P. Siakam · IND
35 MIN · 29 PTSC. Martin · DAL
19 MIN · 0-2 FGKyrie Irving · DAL
STAT · 38 MIN · 35 PTS · 11-18 FG · 7-10 3PTAaron Nesmith · IND
STAT · 34 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-14 FG · 4-10 3PTIvica Zubac · IND
STAT · 28 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-7 FG · 6-8 FT
Data-Driven Pick · C. Flagg Under 25.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pacers vs Mavericks pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 222.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day