Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons
Final · NBCSN
111–122Last shot · Felix Okpara makes 10-foot jumper (Will Riley assists)
At lock: projected WSH 104.52–115.36 DET
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2908606986
- Winner: Pistons (82%)
- Spread: DET -9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 218.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)12
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Cunningham points | — | 24 | 17 | off -7 |
| A. Dybantsa points | — | 15 | 21 | off 6 |
| K. George points | — | 16 | 12 | off -4 |
| D. Robinson points | — | 14 | 22 | off 8 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs DET
The model
How this number was built
WSH 104.52–115.36 DET · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDET +3.9 vs WSH -4.5 · pred margin +10.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.8 vs -6.6 · back-to-back: DET, WSH · model DET 122.3–107.3 WSH
- Home field+2.8 pts to DET
- RecordDET 7-3 · WSH 4-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward DET -9.5 / total 218.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 32 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 111 |
| DET | 31 | 37 | 35 | 19 | 122 |
Scoring plays
TIP SHOT4th Quarter 6:2899–115Anthony Davis makes tip shot
- FT4th Quarter 5:42100–115
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 5:42101–115
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 5:29101–117Kevin Huerter makes layup (Paul Reed assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:28104–117
Kyshawn George makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Dybantsa assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:33104–119
Daniss Jenkins makes 2-foot dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:11106–119
Tre Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 2:49106–120
Cade Cunningham makes technical free throw
- FT4th Quarter 2:20106–121
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:20106–122
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 40.2109–122
Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 0.3111–122
Felix Okpara makes 10-foot jumper (Will Riley assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WSH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Davis F · #23 | 34 | 44 | 16-21 | 2-4 | 10-11 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 4 | -10 |
 A. Dybantsa F · #4 | 37 | 21 | 8-17 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -12 |
 K. George F · #18 | 35 | 12 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 |
 A. Sarr C · #20 | 25 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -15 |
 T. Young G · #3 | 38 | 20 | 6-17 | 3-10 | 5-9 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 |
 A. Gill F · #16 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
 F. Okpara F · #34 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5 |
 D. Ayton C · #8 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
 T. Mann G · #1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
 B. Carrington G · #7 | 19 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
 W. Riley G · #27 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
 T. Johnson G · #12 | 29 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 |
 K. Middleton F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 111 | 41-89 | 9-36 | 20-28 | 46 | 16 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WSH | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 41-89 | 43-91 |
| FG% | 46 | 47 |
| 3PT | 9-36 | 8-31 |
| 3P% | 25 | 26 |
| FT | 20-28 | 28-31 |
| FT% | 71 | 90 |
| REB | 46 | 45 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 32 | 34 |
| AST | 16 | 31 |
| STL | 7 | 11 |
| BLK | 4 | 6 |
| TO | 18 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 19 | 11 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 13 |
| FBPs | 4 | 19 |
| PIP | 50 | 58 |
| PF | 23 | 25 |
| LL | 1 | 19 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 2 | 94 |
At lock WSH 104.52–115.36 DET · DET by 10.8 pts vs DET -9.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp C. Cunningham · DET
17 PTS · under 25.5A. Davis · WSH
34 MIN · 44 PTSD. Robinson · DET
34 MIN · 22 PTSJohn Collins · DET
STAT · 28 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-13 FG · 2-3 3PTDaniss Jenkins · DET
STAT · 36 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-16 FG · 2-6 3PTAJ Dybantsa · WSH
STAT · 37 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-17 FG · 1-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · C. Cunningham Under 25.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wizards vs Pistons pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DET -9.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day