Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings
Final
114–108Last shot · Keegan Murray misses 26-foot fade away jump shot
At lock: projected MIA 122.77–115.51 SAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2858274129
- Winner: Heat (73%)
- Spread: SAC +8.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 238.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)17
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mitchell points | — | 12 | 17 | off 5 |
| K. Murray points | — | 13 | 10 | off -3 |
| D. Acuff Jr. points | — | 25 | 32 | off 7 |
| B. Adebayo points | — | 19 | 18 | off -1 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs SAC
The model
How this number was built
MIA 122.77–115.51 SAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSAC -9.6 vs MIA +1.3 · pred margin -10.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -7.7 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: SAC, MIA · model SAC 114.7–120.4 MIA
- Home field+2.8 pts to SAC
- RecordSAC 1-9 · MIA 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MIA -11.5 / total 235.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 34 | 34 | 23 | 23 | 114 |
| SAC | 30 | 29 | 22 | 27 | 108 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 3:53104–100Darius Acuff Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:53104–101
Darius Acuff Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 3:18106–101Klay Thompson makes running layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 2:00108–101
Bam Adebayo makes tip shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:51108–102
Darius Acuff Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:51108–103
Darius Acuff Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:35110–103
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:17110–105
De'Andre Hunter makes driving layup (Keegan Murray assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 59.1112–105
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Davion Mitchell assists)
- FT4th Quarter 24.2113–105
Davion Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 24.2114–105
Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 17.1114–108
De'Andre Hunter makes 29-foot three point jumper (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Antetokounmpo F · #7 | 34 | 29 | 14-23 | 0-1 | 1-7 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +19 |
 B. Adebayo C · #13 | 34 | 18 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -5 |
 K. Thompson G · #11 | 32 | 23 | 8-15 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +18 |
 D. Mitchell G · #2 | 40 | 17 | 6-10 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 |
 P. Larsson G · #9 | 22 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +3 |
 A. Wiggins F · #22 | 32 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 |
 B. Portis F · #95 | 20 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +6 |
 T. Hardaway Jr. G · #10 | 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 |
 R. Conwell G · #4 | 19 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +10 |
 S. Fontecchio F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Gardner F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Jovic F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Richards C · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Smith G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 114 | 44-88 | 18-43 | 8-18 | 36 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 44-88 | 38-82 |
| FG% | 50 | 46 |
| 3PT | 18-43 | 11-37 |
| 3P% | 42 | 30 |
| FT | 8-18 | 21-23 |
| FT% | 44 | 91 |
| REB | 36 | 44 |
| OR | 8 | 10 |
| DR | 28 | 34 |
| AST | 29 | 24 |
| STL | 7 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 18 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 13 | 20 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 23 |
| FBPs | 18 | 8 |
| PIP | 38 | 46 |
| PF | 21 | 23 |
| LL | 16 | 5 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 82 | 11 |
At lock MIA 122.77–115.51 SAC · MIA by 7.3 pts vs SAC +8.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp G. Antetokounmpo · MIA
29 PTS · under 30.5D. Hunter · SAC
31 MIN · 14 PTSDarius Acuff Jr. · SAC
STAT · 39 MIN · 32 PTS · 11-21 FG · 3-7 3PTKlay Thompson · MIA
STAT · 32 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-15 FG · 7-13 3PTBam Adebayo · MIA
STAT · 34 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-15 FG · 1-5 3PTDavion Mitchell · MIA
STAT · 40 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · G. Antetokounmpo Under 30.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Heat vs Kings pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +8.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day