Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
Final · Arizona's Family 3TV
99–102Last shot · Kevin Durant misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected HOU 114.83–108.32 PHX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 811654874
- Winner: Rockets (71%)
- Spread: PHX +7.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)23
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Durant points | — | 24 | 21 | off -3 |
| M. Bridges points | — | 17 | 13 | off -4 |
| A. Thompson points | — | 17 | 17 | off 0 |
| D. Booker points | — | 26 | 24 | off -2 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: HOU vs PHX
The model
How this number was built
HOU 114.83–108.32 PHX · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHX -1.0 vs HOU +6.3 · pred margin -5.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.1 vs +5.3 · back-to-back: PHX, HOU · model PHX 109.1–112.7 HOU
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHX
- RecordPHX 3-5 · HOU 7-3
- Market priorBlended 67% toward HOU -6.5 / total 223.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 23 | 24 | 28 | 24 | 99 |
| PHX | 35 | 12 | 29 | 26 | 102 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 6:4289–92Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 6:2291–92Jabari Smith Jr. makes 15-foot jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
- FT4th Quarter 6:0591–93
Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:1393–93
Alperen Sengun makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:2493–95
Devin Booker makes 17-foot running pullup jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 4:0894–95
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:0895–95
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:4895–97
Devin Booker makes 10-foot step back jumpshot
- 3PT4th Quarter 3:1395–100
Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Oso Ighodaro assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:3095–102
Devin Booker makes two point shot (Miles Bridges assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:1097–102
Amen Thompson makes alley oop layup (Fred VanVleet assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 46.799–102
Kevin Durant makes 16-foot jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| HOU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Durant F · #7 | 38 | 21 | 5-14 | 1-7 | 10-11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | +8 |
 J. Smith Jr. F · #10 | 39 | 15 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +9 |
 A. Sengun C · #28 | 32 | 15 | 5-16 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -16 |
 F. VanVleet G · #5 | 31 | 16 | 6-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +11 |
 A. Thompson G · #1 | 39 | 17 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +1 |
 T. Eason F · #17 | 23 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +7 |
 O. Tshiebwe C · #9 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
 M. Smart G · #36 | 20 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -10 |
 B. Bogdanovic G · #31 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6 |
 R. Sheppard G · #15 | 13 | 6 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 |
 J. Tate F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Crawford F · #27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Adams C · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Capela C · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Thornton G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 99 | 36-94 | 10-35 | 17-19 | 46 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HOU | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 36-94 | 41-85 |
| FG% | 38 | 48 |
| 3PT | 10-35 | 12-34 |
| 3P% | 29 | 35 |
| FT | 17-19 | 8-11 |
| FT% | 89 | 73 |
| REB | 46 | 44 |
| OR | 15 | 9 |
| DR | 31 | 35 |
| AST | 16 | 29 |
| STL | 7 | 8 |
| BLK | 8 | 3 |
| TO | 14 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 15 |
| FBPs | 11 | 8 |
| PIP | 40 | 44 |
| PF | 16 | 18 |
| LL | 6 | 19 |
| LC | 17 | 17 |
| LPCT | 20 | 66 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Cleared 6.5 assists in all of last 6 (10/10/9/9/7/7) at 8.7 APG; Capela and Adams out keep him the primary hub vs PHX.
At lock HOU 114.83–108.32 PHX · HOU by 6.5 pts vs PHX +7.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Durant · HOU
21 PTS · under 21.5D. Brooks · PHX
37 MIN · 11 PTSDevin Booker · PHX
STAT · 39 MIN · 24 PTS · 10-24 FG · 2-9 3PTAmen Thompson · HOU
STAT · 39 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-15 FG · 3-4 FTFred VanVleet · HOU
STAT · 31 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-9 3PTJalen Green · PHX
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-14 FG · 0-1 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Durant Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rockets vs Suns pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHX +7.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day