Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Final
109–128Last shot · Alijah Martin blocks Bryce Hopkins's layup
At lock: projected TOR 113.89–117.35 DEN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 642745851
- Winner: Nuggets (66%)
- Score error (both teams)14
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Barnes points | — | 18 | 17 | off -1 |
| J. Murray points | — | 25 | 14 | off -11 |
| N. Jokic points | — | 27 | 32 | off 5 |
| I. Quickley points | — | 17 | 13 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOR vs DEN
The model
How this number was built
TOR 113.89–117.35 DEN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDEN +3.4 vs TOR -1.6 · pred margin +5.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.2 vs +1.6 · back-to-back: DEN, TOR · model DEN 116.1–112.4 TOR
- Home field+2.8 pts to DEN
- RecordDEN 4-3 · TOR 4-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward DEN -4.5 / total 230.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 35 | 32 | 15 | 27 | 109 |
| DEN | 33 | 31 | 41 | 23 | 128 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 4:03100–124Jamison Battle makes two point shot (Jamal Shead assists)
FT4th Quarter 3:45100–125Bryce Hopkins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:45100–126
Bryce Hopkins makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:55102–126
Kyle Anderson makes 20-foot jumper (Allen Graves assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:44103–126
Alijah Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:44104–126
Alijah Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:23106–126
Alijah Martin makes running layup (Kyle Anderson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:04107–126
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 27.0107–127
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 27.0107–128
Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 17.0108–128
Jaden Bradley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 17.0109–128
Jaden Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TOR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Barrett F · #9 | 33 | 22 | 7-17 | 3-7 | 5-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -15 |
 S. Barnes F · #4 | 32 | 17 | 7-15 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -23 |
 C. Murray-Boyles F · #30 | 23 | 13 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 |
 I. Quickley G · #5 | 32 | 13 | 5-12 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -29 |
 J. Walter G · #14 | 27 | 8 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 |
 K. Anderson F · #13 | 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 |
 T. Jackson-Davis F · #32 | 4 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
 J. Battle F · #77 | 19 | 9 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -14 |
 A. Graves F · #22 | 14 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 |
 J. Poeltl C · #19 | 19 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 |
 J. Shead G · #1 | 20 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -17 |
 J. Bradley G · #8 | 4 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7 |
 A. Martin G · #55 | 9 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Team | 109 | 41-85 | 12-34 | 15-22 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 41-85 | 48-78 |
| FG% | 48 | 62 |
| 3PT | 12-34 | 9-23 |
| 3P% | 35 | 39 |
| FT | 15-22 | 23-27 |
| FT% | 68 | 85 |
| REB | 29 | 36 |
| OR | 11 | 7 |
| DR | 18 | 29 |
| AST | 29 | 35 |
| STL | 10 | 11 |
| BLK | 1 | 1 |
| TO | 15 | 15 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 24 | 15 |
| FBPs | 11 | 12 |
| PIP | 46 | 76 |
| PF | 23 | 18 |
| LL | 10 | 27 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 50 | 47 |
At lock TOR 113.89–117.35 DEN · DEN by 3.5 pts vs TOR +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp T. Brazile · DEN
6 PTS · covers 5.5R. Barrett · TOR
33 MIN · 22 PTSA. Gordon · DEN
25 MIN · 17 PTSNikola Jokic · DEN
STAT · 30 MIN · 32 PTS · 13-19 FG · 0-1 3PTBryce Hopkins · DEN
STAT · 28 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-7 FG · 1-1 3PTScottie Barnes · TOR
STAT · 32 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-15 FG · 1-2 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · T. Brazile Over 5.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Raptors vs Nuggets pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TOR +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day