Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers
Final · NBA League Pass
117–138Last shot · Ryan Conwell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
At lock: projected MIA 117.66–121.04 LAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 710003422
- Winner: Lakers (62%)
- Spread: LAL -2.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 238.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)18
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mitchell points | — | 11 | 15 | off 4 |
| L. Doncic points | — | 34 | 42 | off 8 |
| B. Adebayo points | — | 18 | 16 | off -2 |
| A. Reaves points | — | 24 | 27 | off 3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs LAL
The model
How this number was built
MIA 117.66–121.04 LAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAL +5.0 vs MIA +1.3 · pred margin +3.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.9 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: LAL, MIA · model LAL 122.1–115.6 MIA
- Home field+2.8 pts to LAL
- RecordLAL 6-2 · MIA 2-5
- Market priorBlended 68% toward LAL -1.5 / total 237.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 30 | 42 | 21 | 24 | 117 |
| LAL | 37 | 42 | 32 | 27 | 138 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:03110–132Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 3:52111–132Davion Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:29112–132
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:29113–132
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:11113–134
Luka Doncic makes 16-foot fade away jump shot (Quentin Grimes assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:53114–134
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:19114–135
Jaden Hardy makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:19114–136
Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 54.4115–136
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 24.5116–136
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 24.5117–136
Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 14.3117–138
Bronny James makes driving layup (Collin Sexton assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Antetokounmpo F · #7 | 34 | 30 | 10-17 | 0-3 | 10-15 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -7 |
 A. Wiggins F · #22 | 24 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -26 |
 B. Adebayo C · #13 | 31 | 16 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 5-7 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -23 |
 K. Thompson G · #11 | 27 | 19 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -22 |
 D. Mitchell G · #2 | 29 | 15 | 5-5 | 4-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 |
 B. Portis F · #95 | 18 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 |
 M. Gardner F · #15 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
 N. Jovic F · #5 | 7 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
 N. Richards C · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
 T. Hardaway Jr. G · #10 | 19 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
 D. Smith G · #12 | 11 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
 P. Larsson G · #9 | 30 | 9 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
 R. Conwell G · #4 | 8 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 |
 S. Fontecchio F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 117 | 38-75 | 16-41 | 25-35 | 34 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 38-75 | 51-89 |
| FG% | 51 | 57 |
| 3PT | 16-41 | 19-43 |
| 3P% | 39 | 44 |
| FT | 25-35 | 17-24 |
| FT% | 71 | 71 |
| REB | 34 | 41 |
| OR | 7 | 10 |
| DR | 27 | 31 |
| AST | 28 | 39 |
| STL | 7 | 8 |
| BLK | 5 | 4 |
| TO | 19 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 16 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 18 | 20 |
| FBPs | 20 | 6 |
| PIP | 38 | 60 |
| PF | 23 | 28 |
| LL | 4 | 24 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 3 | 94 |
At lock MIA 117.66–121.04 LAL · LAL by 3.4 pts vs LAL -2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp W. Kessler · LAL
15 PTS · covers 12.5G. Antetokounmpo · MIA
34 MIN · 30 PTSJ. LaRavia · LAL
26 MIN · 7 PTSLuka Doncic · LAL
STAT · 36 MIN · 42 PTS · 14-24 FG · 6-15 3PTAustin Reaves · LAL
STAT · 34 MIN · 27 PTS · 10-15 FG · 4-5 3PTKlay Thompson · MIA
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-11 FG · 4-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · W. Kessler Over 12.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Heat vs Lakers pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LAL -2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day