Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Final · NBA League Pass
113–116Last shot · Collin Gillespie misses 36-foot running jump shot
At lock: projected PHX 112.04–115.18 GS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 710150517
- Winner: Warriors (60%)
- Spread: PHX +4.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 227.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)0
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Lendeborg points | — | 22 | 16 | off -6 |
| S. Curry points | — | 26 | 34 | off 8 |
| D. Booker points | — | 26 | 26 | off 0 |
| M. Bridges points | — | 16 | 21 | off 5 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PHX vs GS
The model
How this number was built
PHX 112.04–115.18 GS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGS -2.9 vs PHX -1.0 · pred margin +2.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.9 vs +0.1 · back-to-back: GS, PHX · model GS 113.4–110.6 PHX
- Home field+2.8 pts to GS
- RecordGS 5-3 · PHX 1-4
- Market priorBlended 69% toward GS -2.5 / total 227.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 31 | 26 | 36 | 20 | 113 |
| GS | 19 | 32 | 42 | 23 | 116 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:54106–109Georges Niang makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 3:38108–109Devin Booker makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:06108–110
Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:06108–111
Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:47108–112
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:47108–113
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 38.4110–113
Oso Ighodaro makes 3-foot dunk (Collin Gillespie assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 14.2112–113
Jalen Green makes 6-foot driving dunk
- FT4th Quarter 7.4112–114
Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 7.4112–115
Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 6.0113–115
Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 5.1113–116
Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PHX | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Brooks F · #3 | 34 | 18 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 6-7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -13 |
 M. Bridges F · #22 | 35 | 21 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 |
 K. Maluach C · #10 | 13 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
 D. Booker G · #15 | 35 | 26 | 8-18 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -18 |
 J. Green G · #4 | 36 | 11 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 1-6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +4 |
 O. Ighodaro F · #11 | 24 | 14 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -4 |
 R. Dunn F · #0 | 10 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
 L. Kennard G · #8 | 18 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +15 |
 J. Goodwin G · #23 | 10 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 |
 C. Gillespie G · #12 | 24 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 |
 K. Peat F · #18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Fleming F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Bouyea G · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 113 | 40-85 | 11-30 | 22-30 | 37 | 28 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 29 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PHX | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-85 | 36-84 |
| FG% | 47 | 43 |
| 3PT | 11-30 | 13-42 |
| 3P% | 37 | 31 |
| FT | 22-30 | 31-37 |
| FT% | 73 | 84 |
| REB | 37 | 44 |
| OR | 9 | 12 |
| DR | 28 | 32 |
| AST | 28 | 23 |
| STL | 11 | 7 |
| BLK | 5 | 2 |
| TO | 15 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 13 |
| TECH | 3 | 2 |
| TECH | 3 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 15 |
| FBPs | 14 | 7 |
| PIP | 48 | 42 |
| PF | 29 | 23 |
| LL | 17 | 7 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 71 | 18 |
At lock PHX 112.04–115.18 GS · GS by 3.1 pts vs PHX +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Goodwin · PHX
4 PTS · needs 3.5 moreD. Brooks · PHX
34 MIN · 18 PTSD. Green · GS
17 MIN · 4 PTSStephen Curry · GS
STAT · 33 MIN · 34 PTS · 9-21 FG · 5-13 3PTDevin Booker · PHX
STAT · 35 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-18 FG · 2-4 3PTMiles Bridges · PHX
STAT · 35 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-14 FG · 3-5 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Goodwin Over 7.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Suns vs Warriors pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHX +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day