Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Final · NBA League Pass
97–119Last shot · Tarris Reed Jr. blocks Isaiah Collier's two point shot
At lock: projected UTAH 108.61–124.56 SA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 743705755
- Winner: Spurs (91%)
- Spread: UTAH +16.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 230.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)18
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Fox points | — | 18 | 12 | off -6 |
| D. Vassell points | — | 13 | 11 | off -2 |
| K. George points | — | 23 | 7 | off -16 |
| L. Markkanen points | — | 24 | 22 | off -2 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTAH vs SA
The model
How this number was built
UTAH 108.61–124.56 SA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSA +10.2 vs UTAH -7.5 · pred margin +17.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +8.4 vs -7.3 · back-to-back: SA, UTAH · model SA 125.0–106.5 UTAH
- Home field+2.8 pts to SA
- RecordSA 5-2 · UTAH 1-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward SA -16.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 16 | 33 | 20 | 28 | 97 |
| SA | 27 | 32 | 35 | 25 | 119 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 4:0590–106Darryn Peterson makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Isaiah Collier assists)
TIP SHOT4th Quarter 3:4690–108Tarris Reed Jr. makes tip shot
- FT4th Quarter 3:3991–108
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:0293–108
Tony Bradley makes 1-foot two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:3993–111
Carter Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:2494–111
Darryn Peterson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:2495–111
Darryn Peterson makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:3795–114
Harrison Barnes makes 24-foot three pointer (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:1997–114
Isaiah Collier makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:0197–117
Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
- FT4th Quarter 32.297–118
Tarris Reed Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 32.297–119
Tarris Reed Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTAH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Markkanen F · #23 | 31 | 22 | 8-16 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -23 |
 J. Hayes C · #11 | 22 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -5 |
 K. George G · #3 | 22 | 7 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -30 |
 A. Bailey G · #19 | 24 | 5 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -26 |
 D. Peterson G · #22 | 33 | 14 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 |
 K. Filipowski F · #2 | 8 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 |
 B. Sensabaugh F · #28 | 14 | 7 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +3 |
 T. Bradley C · #13 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +4 |
 M. Bamba C · #44 | 18 | 8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -21 |
 S. Mykhailiuk G · #10 | 14 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -15 |
 J. Okogie G · #21 | 19 | 9 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +7 |
 J. Green G · #5 | 15 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
 I. Collier G · #8 | 12 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 |
 K. Bufkin G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 97 | 34-96 | 12-33 | 17-22 | 53 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTAH | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 34-96 | 42-91 |
| FG% | 35 | 46 |
| 3PT | 12-33 | 11-32 |
| 3P% | 36 | 34 |
| FT | 17-22 | 24-30 |
| FT% | 77 | 80 |
| REB | 53 | 53 |
| OR | 17 | 9 |
| DR | 36 | 44 |
| AST | 16 | 27 |
| STL | 9 | 6 |
| BLK | 7 | 7 |
| TO | 11 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 2 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 16 |
| FBPs | 9 | 26 |
| PIP | 36 | 52 |
| PF | 17 | 23 |
| LL | 2 | 26 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 1 | 98 |
At lock UTAH 108.61–124.56 SA · SA by 16.0 pts vs UTAH +16.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp S. Castle · SA
16 PTS · needs 0.5 moreL. Markkanen · UTAH
31 MIN · 22 PTSV. Wembanyama · SA
24 MIN · 12 PTSDylan Harper · SA
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-10 FG · 1-2 3PTKeldon Johnson · SA
STAT · 27 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-12 FG · 1-2 3PTDarryn Peterson · UTAH
STAT · 33 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · S. Castle Over 16.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jazz vs Spurs pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTAH +16.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day