LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Final · NBA League Pass
112–124Last shot · De'Anthony Melton misses 31-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected LAC 110.29–111.39 GS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2589390940
- Winner: Warriors (53%)
- Spread: LAC +2.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 219.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)13
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Curry points | — | 26 | 0 | off -26 |
| Y. Lendeborg points | — | 22 | 37 | off 15 |
| D. Garland points | — | 20 | 15 | off -5 |
| B. Ingram points | — | 21 | 0 | off -21 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LAC vs GS
The model
How this number was built
LAC 110.29–111.39 GS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGS -2.9 vs LAC -5.1 · pred margin +2.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.9 vs -0.5 · back-to-back: GS, LAC · model GS 114.2–110.8 LAC
- Home field+2.8 pts to GS
- RecordGS 4-3 · LAC 1-5
- Market priorBlended 68% toward GS -1.5 / total 220.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 37 | 20 | 28 | 27 | 112 |
| GS | 29 | 34 | 29 | 32 | 124 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 5:2197–116Keaton Wagler makes free throw 1 of 1
SCORE4th Quarter 4:1797–118Charles Bassey makes 4-foot layup (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)
- FT4th Quarter 4:0598–118
Baba Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:0599–118
Baba Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:40101–118
Nick Martinelli makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:07104–118
Nick Martinelli makes 26-foot three point jumper (Baba Miller assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:41107–118
Cam Christie makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:16110–118
Nick Martinelli makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jalen Pickett assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:16110–121
De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
- 3PT4th Quarter 39.5110–124
De'Anthony Melton makes 29-foot three pointer
- FT4th Quarter 33.3111–124
Blake Wesley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 33.3112–124
Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LAC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Jones Jr. F · #5 | 28 | 9 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -8 |
 R. Hachimura F · #28 | 30 | 24 | 10-16 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -28 |
 I. Jackson F · #23 | 22 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -20 |
 K. Dunn G · #8 | 27 | 12 | 5-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -8 |
 D. Garland G · #10 | 33 | 15 | 4-12 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 |
 B. Miller F · #18 | 6 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +10 |
 N. Martinelli F · #12 | 6 | 10 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +10 |
 B. Lopez C · #11 | 19 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 |
 J. Pickett G · #21 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +10 |
 B. Wesley G · #20 | 4 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
 K. Sanders G · #4 | 30 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -18 |
 C. Christie G · #24 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +10 |
 G. Dick G · #9 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
 K. Wagler G · #1 | 19 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -6 |
| Team | 112 | 40-91 | 14-39 | 18-19 | 42 | 22 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAC | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-91 | 46-86 |
| FG% | 44 | 53 |
| 3PT | 14-39 | 22-49 |
| 3P% | 36 | 45 |
| FT | 18-19 | 10-14 |
| FT% | 95 | 71 |
| REB | 42 | 44 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 28 | 33 |
| AST | 22 | 32 |
| STL | 11 | 5 |
| BLK | 0 | 5 |
| TO | 14 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 15 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 14 |
| FBPs | 13 | 20 |
| PIP | 48 | 44 |
| PF | 17 | 18 |
| LL | 11 | 22 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 29 | 66 |
At lock LAC 110.29–111.39 GS · GS by 1.1 pts vs LAC +2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp I. Jackson · LAC
5 PTS · needs 4.5 moreD. Jones Jr. · LAC
28 MIN · 9 PTSG. Niang · GS
21 MIN · 3 PTSYaxel Lendeborg · GS
STAT · 34 MIN · 37 PTS · 13-19 FG · 6-11 3PTRui Hachimura · LAC
STAT · 30 MIN · 24 PTS · 10-16 FG · 4-7 3PTDe'Anthony Melton · GS
STAT · 28 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-9 FG · 6-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · I. Jackson Over 9.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Clippers vs Warriors pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LAC +2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day