Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Final · NBA TV
111–114Last shot · Donovan Mitchell misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected CLE 117.32–119.74 ATL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 29, 8:39 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2880280768
- Winner: Hawks (58%)
- Spread: ATL -1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 237.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)13
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johnson points | — | 22 | 17 | off -5 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 28 | 22 | off -6 |
| N. Alexander-Walker points | — | 20 | 25 | off 5 |
| J. Harden points | — | 22 | 24 | off 2 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CLE vs ATL
The model
How this number was built
CLE 117.32–119.74 ATL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexATL +1.1 vs CLE +4.0 · pred margin +1.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +1.5 vs +1.8 · back-to-back: ATL, CLE · model ATL 118.1–116.5 CLE
- Home field+2.8 pts to ATL
- RecordATL 3-3 · CLE 3-2
- Market priorBlended 69% toward ATL -1.5 / total 237.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 28 | 16 | 38 | 29 | 111 |
| ATL | 16 | 30 | 43 | 25 | 114 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 2:12101–108Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:45103–108
James Harden makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 1:45104–108
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 1
SCORE4th Quarter 1:27104–110Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 1-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:19106–110
Evan Mobley makes dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)
- FT4th Quarter 43.2107–110
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 43.2108–110
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 43.2109–110
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 3 of 3
- SCORE4th Quarter 28.2109–112
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 20.6111–112
Donovan Mitchell makes 5-foot two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 15.3111–113
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.3111–114
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CLE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Allen C · #31 | 30 | 14 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +6 |
 E. Mobley C · #4 | 33 | 11 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 |
 J. Harden G · #1 | 36 | 24 | 7-14 | 3-8 | 7-9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
 D. Mitchell G · #45 | 33 | 22 | 7-19 | 1-9 | 7-8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 |
 P. Watson G · #8 | 22 | 4 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 |
 M. Hezonja F · #33 | 17 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -13 |
 S. Merrill G · #5 | 27 | 16 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +8 |
 J. Tyson G · #20 | 18 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Porter Jr. G · #9 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -11 |
 T. Proctor G · #24 | 20 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +5 |
 R. Minix F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Bryant C · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Udeh Jr. C · #88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 111 | 38-87 | 13-42 | 22-29 | 45 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLE | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 38-87 | 42-95 |
| FG% | 44 | 44 |
| 3PT | 13-42 | 17-43 |
| 3P% | 31 | 40 |
| FT | 22-29 | 13-18 |
| FT% | 76 | 72 |
| REB | 45 | 53 |
| OR | 9 | 15 |
| DR | 36 | 38 |
| AST | 26 | 34 |
| STL | 3 | 4 |
| BLK | 5 | 3 |
| TO | 9 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 7 |
| FBPs | 4 | 15 |
| PIP | 46 | 50 |
| PF | 19 | 22 |
| LL | 15 | 11 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 39 | 57 |
At lock CLE 117.32–119.74 ATL · ATL by 2.4 pts vs ATL -1.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: ATL -1.5 locked at 53% when posted
HitProp O. Okongwu · ATL
29 PTS · covers 11.5J. Allen · CLE
30 MIN · 14 PTSNickeil Alexander-Walker · ATL
STAT · 31 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-17 FG · 4-12 3PTJames Harden · CLE
STAT · 36 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-14 FG · 3-8 3PTDonovan Mitchell · CLE
STAT · 33 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-19 FG · 1-9 3PTAaron Wiggins · ATL
STAT · 24 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-14 FG · 4-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · O. Okongwu Over 11.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cavaliers vs Hawks pick result · Oct 29, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ATL -1.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day