Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
TV · NBA TV
At lock GS 109.21–115.01 PHX · PHX by 5.8 pts vs GS +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected GS 109.21–115.01 PHX
Model vs market
Gap: -5.4 margin, +4.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GS vs PHX
Warriors vs Suns prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GS +6.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Warriors 109.2, Suns 115.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Suns 77%, Warriors 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day