San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
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At lock SA 121.68–111.04 DAL · 2.2 pts over 230.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected SA 121.68–111.04 DAL
Model vs market
Gap: +4.0 margin, +7.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SA vs DAL
Spurs vs Mavericks prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 230.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Spurs 121.7, Mavericks 111.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Mavericks 17%, Spurs 83%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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