Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
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At lock MIL 109.66–120.87 PHI · PHI by 11.2 pts vs MIL +12.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected MIL 109.66–120.87 PHI
Model vs market
Gap: -4.3 margin, -5.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs PHI
Bucks vs 76ers prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIL +12.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Bucks 109.7, 76ers 120.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: 76ers 82%, Bucks 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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