NBAFinalFrost Bank Center

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

Final · Prime Video

85–123

WarriorsSpurs

Final

Last shot · LJ Cryer misses driving floating jump shot

Golden State Warriors

8-5 · L2

1517 PF · 1461 PA

Final

San Antonio Spurs

11-2 · W11

1553 PF · 1381 PA

123

GS 19%SA 81%

At lock: projected GS 105.92–116.61 SA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 463407835

Winner called · off by 27

Most typical sim

GS 106 – SA 117

Final

GS 85 – SA 123

Winner: Spurs (81%)
Spread: GS +12.5 covers (57%)
Total: Over 219.5 (67%)
Score error (both teams)27

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
B. Podziemski points	—	15	8	off -7
S. Castle points	—	16	32	off 16
D. Fox points	—	17	7	off -10
Y. Lendeborg points	—	21	3	off -18

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GS vs SA

The model

How this number was built

GS 105.92–116.61 SA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SA +10.2 vs GS -2.9 · pred margin +13.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +8.4 vs +0.9 · back-to-back: SA, GS · model SA 118.1–108.3 GS
Home field
+2.8 pts to SA
Record
SA 11-2 · GS 8-5
Market prior
Blended 65% toward SA -12.5 / total 217.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
GS	14	19	27	25	85
SA	38	25	34	26	123

Scoring plays

SCORE4th Quarter 5:3177–113
Jordan McLaughlin makes two point shot
HOOK SHOT4th Quarter 5:1479–113
Charles Bassey makes 2-foot hook shot (LJ Cryer assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 4:1579–115
Tarris Reed Jr. makes two point shot
SCORE4th Quarter 3:2179–117
Carter Bryant makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Keldon Johnson assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 3:0379–119
Keldon Johnson makes two point shot (Carter Bryant assists)
FT4th Quarter 2:2180–119
Malevy Leons makes free throw 1 of 2
FT4th Quarter 2:2181–119
Malevy Leons makes free throw 2 of 2
HOOK SHOT4th Quarter 1:5083–119
Charles Bassey makes 4-foot hook shot (LJ Cryer assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 1:0385–119
Charles Bassey makes 1-foot two point shot (LJ Cryer assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 45.985–121
Keldon Johnson makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Carter Bryant assists)
FT4th Quarter 25.285–122
Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
FT4th Quarter 25.285–123
Keldon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

GS	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	OREB	DREB	PF	+/-
D. Green F · #23	16	4	2-5	0-2	0-0	3	3	2	1	0	0	3	3	-23
Y. Lendeborg F · #1	24	3	1-13	0-2	1-2	7	1	3	0	1	2	5	3	-40
D. Melton G · #8	18	8	3-11	2-6	0-0	4	3	0	1	1	1	3	1	-29
B. Podziemski G · #2	22	8	2-10	2-5	2-2	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	-24
W. Richard G · #3	30	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	4	1	2	0	0	2	2	4	-27
G. Niang F · #32	15	5	2-4	1-2	0-0	3	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	-15
G. Ike F · #45	13	5	2-7	1-3	0-0	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	-3
M. Leons F · #33	14	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
G. Santos F · #15	21	7	3-8	1-3	0-1	4	1	1	0	1	1	3	1	-7
A. Horford C · #20	10	0	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
C. Bassey C · #28	20	11	5-7	0-0	1-2	5	2	3	0	0	1	4	4	-13
G. Payton II G · #0	13	2	1-3	0-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	+2
L. Cryer G · #18	24	20	7-17	6-11	0-0	2	6	0	1	0	1	1	1	-11
Team		85	31-93	15-41	8-11	43	23	13	4	5	10	33	22

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GS	SA
FG	31-93	46-95
FG%	33	48
3PT	15-41	14-43
3P%	37	33
FT	8-11	17-23
FT%	73	74
REB	43	60
OR	10	15
DR	33	45
AST	23	34
STL	4	7
BLK	5	7
TO	13	9
TTO	1	2
ToTO	14	11
TECH	0	0
TECH	0	0
FLAG	1	0
Points Conceded Off Turnovers	15	12
FBPs	3	21
PIP	28	56
PF	22	13
LL	0	43
LC	0	0
LPCT	0	99

Lean · SpreadNot a strong playMiss

GS +12.5

-112 at lock53%

Model projected GS 105.92 – 116.61 SA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop V. Wembanyama · SA
12 REB · over 11.5
D. Green · GS
16 MIN · 4 PTS
Stephon Castle · SA
STAT · 25 MIN · 32 PTS · 12-18 FG · 5-8 3PT
LJ Cryer · GS
STAT · 24 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-17 FG · 6-11 3PT
Keldon Johnson · SA
STAT · 25 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-11 FG · 2-6 3PT
Charles Bassey · GS
STAT · 20 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-7 FG · 1-2 FT

Data-Driven Pick · V. Wembanyama Under 11.5 reb

Strong play-112Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Warriors vs Spurs pick result · Nov 13, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day