Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
Final · KJZZ-TV
118–125Last shot · Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Brice Sensabaugh's three point jumper
At lock: projected UTAH 102.68–119.51 HOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 480185454
- Winner: Rockets (92%)
- Spread: UTAH +17.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 219.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)20
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thompson points | — | 17 | 12 | off -5 |
| K. Durant points | — | 24 | 22 | off -2 |
| D. Peterson points | — | 16 | 28 | off 12 |
| K. George points | — | 23 | 27 | off 4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTAH vs HOU
The model
How this number was built
UTAH 102.68–119.51 HOU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexHOU +6.3 vs UTAH -7.5 · pred margin +15.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs -7.3 · back-to-back: HOU, UTAH · model HOU 121.5–106.4 UTAH
- Home field+2.8 pts to HOU
- RecordHOU 10-3 · UTAH 1-12
- Market priorBlended 65% toward HOU -15.5 / total 221.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 27 | 26 | 36 | 29 | 118 |
| HOU | 27 | 36 | 29 | 33 | 125 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:19111–113Darryn Peterson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:19112–113
Darryn Peterson makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:08112–116Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)
- FT4th Quarter 3:38112–117
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:26114–117
Keyonte George makes 12-foot two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:46116–117
Darryn Peterson makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:13116–119
Amen Thompson makes 2-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 1:25116–121
Alperen Sengun makes layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:12118–121
Mo Bamba makes layup (Brice Sensabaugh assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 11.9118–123
Fred VanVleet makes 9-foot two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 6.3118–124
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 6.3118–125
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTAH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Hayes C · #11 | 13 | 12 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
 J. Okogie G · #21 | 22 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4 |
 K. George G · #3 | 38 | 27 | 8-18 | 4-7 | 7-8 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +7 |
 A. Bailey G · #19 | 35 | 21 | 7-13 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +10 |
 D. Peterson G · #22 | 34 | 28 | 9-20 | 4-11 | 6-7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -7 |
 K. Filipowski F · #2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
 B. Sensabaugh F · #28 | 27 | 7 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8 |
 T. Bradley C · #13 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 |
 M. Bamba C · #44 | 20 | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 | +4 |
 S. Mykhailiuk G · #10 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -14 |
 J. Green G · #5 | 14 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 |
 I. Collier G · #8 | 16 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -12 |
| Team | 118 | 41-89 | 15-41 | 21-26 | 41 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTAH | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 41-89 | 43-91 |
| FG% | 46 | 47 |
| 3PT | 15-41 | 12-34 |
| 3P% | 37 | 35 |
| FT | 21-26 | 27-34 |
| FT% | 81 | 79 |
| REB | 41 | 47 |
| OR | 13 | 18 |
| DR | 28 | 29 |
| AST | 20 | 25 |
| STL | 4 | 2 |
| BLK | 4 | 8 |
| TO | 10 | 8 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 8 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 18 | 8 |
| FBPs | 18 | 8 |
| PIP | 46 | 52 |
| PF | 25 | 21 |
| LL | 10 | 12 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 21 | 69 |
Model projected UTAH 102.68 – 119.51 HOU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop A. Sengun · HOU
12 REB · over 9.5J. Hayes · UTAH
13 MIN · 12 PTSK. Durant · HOU
33 MIN · 22 PTSDarryn Peterson · UTAH
STAT · 34 MIN · 28 PTS · 9-20 FG · 4-11 3PTKeyonte George · UTAH
STAT · 38 MIN · 27 PTS · 8-18 FG · 4-7 3PTAce Bailey · UTAH
STAT · 35 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-13 FG · 3-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Sengun Under 9.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jazz vs Rockets pick result · Nov 13, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day