Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Final/OT
117–125Last shot · Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected ATL 125.84–118.82 CHI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 740183068
- Winner: Hawks (72%)
- Spread: ATL -6.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 245.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)15
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Alexander-Walker points | — | 21 | 16 | off -5 |
| C. Wilson points | — | 19 | 0 | off -19 |
| J. Johnson points | — | 21 | 27 | off 6 |
| J. Giddey points | — | 15 | 15 | off 0 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ATL vs CHI
The model
How this number was built
ATL 125.84–118.82 CHI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCHI -5.4 vs ATL +1.1 · pred margin -5.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -6.4 vs +1.5 · back-to-back: CHI, ATL · model CHI 117.5–123.9 ATL
- Home field+2.8 pts to CHI
- RecordCHI 2-9 · ATL 7-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ATL -6.5 / total 246.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 24 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 7 | 117 |
| CHI | 33 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 15 | 125 |
Scoring plays
SCOREOT 3:46112–112Norman Powell makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Isaac Okoro assists)
- FTOT 3:46112–113
Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 1
FTOT 2:50113–113Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCOREOT 2:35113–115
Norman Powell makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
- SCOREOT 1:56113–117
Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot layup (Nic Claxton assists)
- SCOREOT 1:43115–117
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 1-foot floating jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
- SCOREOT 1:29115–119
Norman Powell makes 1-foot two point shot
- FTOT 1:29115–120
Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCOREOT 42.9117–120
CJ McCollum makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
- JUMP SHOTOT 23.5117–123
Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)
- FTOT 13.4117–124
Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 7.4117–125
Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ATL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 O. Okongwu F · #17 | 35 | 17 | 7-13 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 |
 J. Johnson F · #1 | 40 | 27 | 11-26 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +3 |
 N. Alexander-Walker G · #7 | 41 | 16 | 6-19 | 1-11 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 |
 D. Daniels G · #5 | 36 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | -3 |
 K. Flemings G · #4 | 17 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 |
 J. Landale C · #31 | 18 | 12 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 |
 C. McCollum G · #3 | 32 | 20 | 9-16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -7 |
 L. Dort G · #0 | 20 | 10 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 |
 A. Wiggins G · #2 | 26 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 |
 D. Finney-Smith F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Kispert F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Ejiofor F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Dennis G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 117 | 47-107 | 8-40 | 15-20 | 48 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 47-107 | 45-91 |
| FG% | 44 | 49 |
| 3PT | 8-40 | 20-50 |
| 3P% | 20 | 40 |
| FT | 15-20 | 15-21 |
| FT% | 75 | 71 |
| REB | 48 | 51 |
| OR | 13 | 10 |
| DR | 35 | 41 |
| AST | 29 | 34 |
| STL | 13 | 11 |
| BLK | 5 | 10 |
| TO | 17 | 24 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 17 | 25 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 34 |
| FBPs | 26 | 8 |
| PIP | 66 | 46 |
| PF | 25 | 22 |
| LL | 2 | 18 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 4 | 87 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Under 9.5 boards in 8 of 9 games this season (7, 7, 7, 8, 9 his last five) at 8.6 RPG, even while logging 36-38 minutes with ATL's backup bigs already sidelined, and Okongwu healthy to share the glass. Atlanta is a 7.5-point favorite at a Chicago team on the second night of a back-to-back, so a lopsided game can trim his minutes.
Model projected ATL 125.84 – 118.82 CHI at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop N. Alexander-Walker · ATL
16 PTS · under 23.5O. Okongwu · ATL
35 MIN · 17 PTSJ. Smith · CHI
32 MIN · 15 PTSNorman Powell · CHI
STAT · 31 MIN · 33 PTS · 12-19 FG · 4-8 3PTJalen Johnson · ATL
STAT · 40 MIN · 27 PTS · 11-26 FG · 0-3 3PTCJ McCollum · ATL
STAT · 32 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-16 FG · 2-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · N. Alexander-Walker Under 23.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hawks vs Bulls pick result · Nov 13, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day