Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
Final · KSBI
128–97Last shot · Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 3-foot two point shot (Jahmai Mashack assists)
At lock: projected OKC 115.68–111.06 MEM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 874404020
- Winner: Thunder (65%)
- Spread: OKC -3.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 225.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)27
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mitchell points | — | 15 | 35 | off 20 |
| C. Boozer points | — | 17 | 8 | off -9 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 30 | 28 | off -2 |
| J. Grant points | — | 16 | 10 | off -6 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs MEM
The model
How this number was built
OKC 115.68–111.06 MEM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMEM -0.0 vs OKC +7.0 · pred margin -4.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.1 vs +5.3 · back-to-back: MEM, OKC · model MEM 111.2–117.1 OKC
- Home field+2.8 pts to MEM
- RecordMEM 6-3 · OKC 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OKC -4.5 / total 224.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 35 | 36 | 27 | 30 | 128 |
| MEM | 28 | 21 | 27 | 21 | 97 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 5:23117–89Jared McCain makes 4-foot two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:07120–89
Bennett Stirtz makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Dix assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:38122–89
Bennett Stirtz makes 2-foot two point shot
FT4th Quarter 3:25122–90Karim Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:25122–91
Karim Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:01124–91
Aday Mara makes two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 2:31125–91
Bennett Stirtz makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:31126–91
Bennett Stirtz makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:37128–91
Micah Peavy makes 22-foot running jump shot (Dalen Terry assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:21128–92
Taylor Hendricks makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 55.5128–95
Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 24.4128–97
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 3-foot two point shot (Jahmai Mashack assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OKC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Hartenstein C · #55 | 26 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +31 |
 K. Williams G · #34 | 19 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +16 |
 S. Gilgeous-Alexander G · #2 | 30 | 28 | 11-22 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +12 |
 J. McCain G · #3 | 29 | 21 | 9-14 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +12 |
 A. Mitchell G · #25 | 30 | 35 | 14-20 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +33 |
 B. Barnhizer F · #23 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 |
 A. Mara C · #15 | 18 | 9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 |
 A. Caruso G · #9 | 20 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +23 |
 M. Peavy G · #16 | 18 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
 D. Terry G · #77 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 |
 J. Dix G · #21 | 15 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +15 |
 B. Stirtz G · #14 | 24 | 12 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7 |
| Team | 128 | 51-92 | 16-35 | 10-16 | 45 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OKC | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 51-92 | 29-88 |
| FG% | 55 | 33 |
| 3PT | 16-35 | 10-45 |
| 3P% | 46 | 22 |
| FT | 10-16 | 29-31 |
| FT% | 63 | 94 |
| REB | 45 | 43 |
| OR | 6 | 13 |
| DR | 39 | 30 |
| AST | 25 | 18 |
| STL | 10 | 5 |
| BLK | 6 | 0 |
| TO | 12 | 18 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 18 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 14 | 30 |
| FBPs | 14 | 8 |
| PIP | 62 | 32 |
| PF | 21 | 20 |
| LL | 37 | 6 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 88 | 7 |
At lock OKC 115.68–111.06 MEM · OKC by 4.6 pts vs OKC -3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp S. Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
28 PTS · under 32.5I. Hartenstein · OKC
26 MIN · 2 PTSC. Coward · MEM
23 MIN · 10 PTSAjay Mitchell · OKC
STAT · 30 MIN · 35 PTS · 14-20 FG · 4-7 3PTJared McCain · OKC
STAT · 29 MIN · 21 PTS · 9-14 FG · 3-8 3PTTy Jerome · MEM
STAT · 28 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-14 FG · 2-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · S. Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Thunder vs Grizzlies pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OKC -3.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day