Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets
Final
119–80Last shot · Liam McNeeley makes running dunk (Christian Anderson assists)
At lock: projected BOS 109.02–102.26 CHA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2803579942
- Winner: Celtics (72%)
- Spread: CHA +8.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 210.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)32
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Allen points | — | 16 | 0 | off -16 |
| P. Pritchard points | — | 16 | 12 | off -4 |
| D. White points | — | 15 | 18 | off 3 |
| B. Miller points | — | 21 | 8 | off -13 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs CHA
The model
How this number was built
BOS 109.02–102.26 CHA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCHA -5.3 vs BOS +7.5 · pred margin -9.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.7 vs +7.0 · back-to-back: CHA, BOS · model CHA 101.8–108.0 BOS
- Home field+2.8 pts to CHA
- RecordCHA 3-7 · BOS 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BOS -10.5 / total 209.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 40 | 30 | 26 | 23 | 119 |
| CHA | 20 | 19 | 18 | 23 | 80 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:55109–67Tidjane Salaun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:35112–67Hugo Gonzalez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ron Harper Jr. assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:57112–69
Liam McNeeley makes two point shot (Christian Anderson assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:26115–69
Jordan Walsh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Garza assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 2:49115–72
Liam McNeeley makes 24-foot three pointer (Christian Anderson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:29115–73
Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:29115–74
Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:19118–74
Luka Garza makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:23118–76
Christian Anderson makes 10-foot fade away jump shot (Hannes Steinbach assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:06119–76
Hugo Gonzalez makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 44.8119–78
Liam McNeeley makes running dunk (Christian Anderson assists)
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 33.4119–80
Hannes Steinbach makes 1-foot dunk (Liam McNeeley assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BOS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. George F · #13 | 22 | 8 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +23 |
 J. Tatum F · #0 | 29 | 34 | 9-16 | 5-8 | 11-11 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +36 |
 N. Queta C · #88 | 15 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +15 |
 D. White G · #9 | 25 | 18 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +23 |
 J. Walsh G · #27 | 22 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +14 |
 S. Hauser F · #30 | 17 | 9 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +24 |
 L. Garza C · #52 | 19 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +16 |
 M. Robinson C · #4 | 15 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6 |
 M. Conley G · #45 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
 P. Pritchard G · #11 | 23 | 12 | 4-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +27 |
 R. Harper Jr. G · #8 | 10 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
 B. Scheierman G · #55 | 15 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +11 |
 H. Gonzalez G · #28 | 15 | 8 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
| Team | 119 | 38-83 | 24-44 | 19-23 | 51 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOS | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 38-83 | 27-92 |
| FG% | 46 | 29 |
| 3PT | 24-44 | 11-50 |
| 3P% | 55 | 22 |
| FT | 19-23 | 15-17 |
| FT% | 83 | 88 |
| REB | 51 | 43 |
| OR | 14 | 19 |
| DR | 37 | 24 |
| AST | 33 | 18 |
| STL | 4 | 6 |
| BLK | 8 | 3 |
| TO | 18 | 15 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 19 | 17 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 20 |
| FBPs | 16 | 10 |
| PIP | 28 | 30 |
| PF | 17 | 17 |
| LL | 46 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 99 | 0 |
At lock BOS 109.02–102.26 CHA · BOS by 6.8 pts vs CHA +8.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp B. Miller · CHA
8 PTS · under 21.5P. George · BOS
22 MIN · 8 PTSJayson Tatum · BOS
STAT · 29 MIN · 34 PTS · 9-16 FG · 5-8 3PTDerrick White · BOS
STAT · 25 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 4-6 3PTNaz Reid · CHA
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-17 FG · 2-5 3PTTidjane Salaun · CHA
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-11 FG · 2-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · B. Miller Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtics vs Hornets pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHA +8.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day