Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
Final · MNMT
132–139Last shot · Trae Young misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected WSH 111.34–119.25 ATL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2988133751
- Winner: Hawks (81%)
- Score error (both teams)40
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Daniels points | — | 11 | 13 | off 2 |
| N. Alexander-Walker points | — | 21 | 28 | off 7 |
| A. Davis points | — | 21 | 0 | off -21 |
| K. George points | — | 15 | 33 | off 18 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs ATL
The model
How this number was built
WSH 111.34–119.25 ATL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexATL +1.1 vs WSH -4.5 · pred margin +8.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +1.5 vs -6.6 · back-to-back: ATL, WSH · model ATL 122.2–111.8 WSH
- Home field+2.8 pts to ATL
- RecordATL 6-4 · WSH 4-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ATL -8.5 / total 228.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 32 | 27 | 35 | 38 | 132 |
| ATL | 28 | 38 | 39 | 34 | 139 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 1:34127–131Kyshawn George makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 59.4127–132Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 59.4127–133
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 53.9128–133
Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 53.9129–133
Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 16.0129–134
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 16.0129–135
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 13.6132–135
Kyshawn George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)
- FT4th Quarter 9.5132–136
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.5132–137
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4.5132–138
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4.5132–139
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WSH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Dybantsa F · #4 | 36 | 11 | 3-13 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -5 |
 K. George F · #18 | 39 | 33 | 10-19 | 5-7 | 8-10 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
 D. Ayton C · #8 | 23 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | -11 |
 A. Sarr C · #20 | 30 | 13 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -6 |
 T. Young G · #3 | 37 | 23 | 7-16 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -13 |
 B. Carrington G · #7 | 15 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 |
 B. Coulibaly G · #0 | 24 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 |
 W. Riley G · #27 | 9 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
 T. Johnson G · #12 | 27 | 23 | 9-16 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 |
 K. Middleton F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Gill F · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Mann G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 132 | 46-91 | 18-34 | 22-24 | 41 | 28 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WSH | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 46-91 | 52-98 |
| FG% | 51 | 53 |
| 3PT | 18-34 | 16-37 |
| 3P% | 53 | 43 |
| FT | 22-24 | 19-20 |
| FT% | 92 | 95 |
| REB | 41 | 43 |
| OR | 14 | 14 |
| DR | 27 | 29 |
| AST | 28 | 38 |
| STL | 10 | 11 |
| BLK | 4 | 1 |
| TO | 16 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 16 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 26 | 26 |
| FBPs | 12 | 11 |
| PIP | 50 | 62 |
| PF | 16 | 18 |
| LL | 4 | 14 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 6 | 91 |
At lock WSH 111.34–119.25 ATL · ATL by 7.9 pts vs ATL -6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp N. Alexander-Walker · ATL
28 PTS · over 21.5A. Dybantsa · WSH
36 MIN · 11 PTSO. Okongwu · ATL
33 MIN · 22 PTSKyshawn George · WSH
STAT · 39 MIN · 33 PTS · 10-19 FG · 5-7 3PTLuguentz Dort · ATL
STAT · 32 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-15 FG · 5-7 3PTTrae Young · WSH
STAT · 37 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-16 FG · 3-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · N. Alexander-Walker Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wizards vs Hawks pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ATL -6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day