Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
Final · MNMT
79–95Last shot · Tre Mann misses driving layup
At lock: projected CHA 111.12–110.84 WSH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 29, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 570141212
- Winner: Hornets (51%)
- Spread: CHA +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 220.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)49
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Miller points | — | 21 | 19 | off -2 |
| A. Davis points | — | 21 | 25 | off 4 |
| G. Allen points | — | 17 | 5 | off -12 |
| K. George points | — | 15 | 12 | off -3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CHA vs WSH
The model
How this number was built
CHA 111.12–110.84 WSH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexWSH -4.5 vs CHA -5.3 · pred margin -0.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -6.6 vs -0.7 · back-to-back: WSH, CHA · model WSH 107.9–112.2 CHA
- Home field+2.8 pts to WSH
- RecordWSH 3-3 · CHA 3-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward CHA -1.5 / total 218.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 26 | 20 | 13 | 20 | 79 |
| WSH | 22 | 29 | 28 | 16 | 95 |
Scoring plays
TIP SHOT4th Quarter 7:1570–84Ryan Kalkbrenner makes tip shot
SCORE4th Quarter 6:5370–86Anthony Davis makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:5870–88
AJ Dybantsa makes driving layup (Bub Carrington assists)
- FT4th Quarter 5:5870–89
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:5770–92
Kyshawn George makes 29-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:3672–92
Naz Reid makes driving dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:3974–92
Moussa Diabate makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Sion James assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:2674–93
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:2674–94
AJ Dybantsa makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:0477–94
Tidjane Salaun makes 31-foot three point jumper (Christian Anderson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 54.677–95
Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 11.779–95
Christian Anderson makes 11-foot two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CHA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Diabate F · #14 | 31 | 10 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | -7 |
 B. Miller F · #24 | 37 | 19 | 7-24 | 3-13 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -15 |
 N. Reid C · #0 | 31 | 12 | 5-17 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | -4 |
 D. Schroder G · #17 | 29 | 8 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 |
 S. James G · #4 | 29 | 6 | 2-10 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 |
 R. O'Neale F · #00 | 17 | 7 | 2-9 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -5 |
 T. Salaun F · #31 | 9 | 6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
 H. Steinbach F · #22 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 R. Kalkbrenner C · #11 | 15 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -11 |
 P. Hall C · #16 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 |
 G. Allen G · #8 | 21 | 5 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -17 |
 C. Anderson G · #5 | 14 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 |
 L. McNeeley G · #33 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 79 | 30-101 | 12-56 | 7-12 | 55 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CHA | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-101 | 28-72 |
| FG% | 30 | 39 |
| 3PT | 12-56 | 10-30 |
| 3P% | 21 | 33 |
| FT | 7-12 | 29-35 |
| FT% | 58 | 83 |
| REB | 55 | 52 |
| OR | 18 | 8 |
| DR | 37 | 44 |
| AST | 22 | 18 |
| STL | 12 | 6 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 14 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 15 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 10 |
| FBPs | 7 | 11 |
| PIP | 28 | 28 |
| PF | 27 | 17 |
| LL | 10 | 25 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 32 | 64 |
At lock CHA 111.12–110.84 WSH · CHA by 0.3 pts vs CHA +1.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: CHA +1.5 locked at 56% when posted
MissProp D. Ayton · WSH
3 PTS · needs 2.5 moreM. Diabate · CHA
31 MIN · 10 PTSA. Davis · WSH
34 MIN · 25 PTSTrae Young · WSH
STAT · 38 MIN · 21 PTS · 4-9 FG · 1-5 3PTBrandon Miller · CHA
STAT · 37 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-24 FG · 3-13 3PTAJ Dybantsa · WSH
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-11 FG · 1-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Ayton Over 5.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hornets vs Wizards pick result · Oct 30, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHA +1.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day