MLSFinalLumen Field

LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC

FT · Apple TV

1–2

LAFCSeattle

Final

LAFC

12-11-11

Form LLDDW · 52 PF · 40 PA

Final

Seattle Sounders FC

12-10-12

Form WLLDD · 44 PF · 46 PA

LAFC 35%Draw 27%SEA 37%

At lock: projected LAFC 1.20–1.24 SEA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 91556322

Called it

Most typical sim

LAFC 1 – SEA 1

Final

LAFC 1 – SEA 2

Winner: Seattle (38%)
Total: Under 2.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

LAFC 1.20–1.24 SEA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SEA att -0.22 / def +0.03 · LAFC att -0.11 / def +0.11 · model SEA 1.3–1.2 LAFC
Home field
+0.3 goals to SEA
Record
SEA 12-10-12 · LAFC 12-11-11
Market prior
Blended 60% toward SEA +110 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
LAFC	0	1	1
SEA	2	0	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 1'
Goal! Seattle Sounders FC 1, Los Angeles Football Club 0. Albert Rusnák (Seattle Sounders FC) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Cristian Roldan.
GOAL1H 31'
Goal! Seattle Sounders FC 2, Los Angeles Football Club 0. Sebastian Gomez (Seattle Sounders FC) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Albert Rusnák.
GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Seattle Sounders FC 2, Los Angeles Football Club 1. Eddie Segura (Los Angeles Football Club) header from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Ryan Porteous with a headed pass following a set piece situation.

Game leaders

Armindo Sieb
totalshots 7
Mark Delgado
Pass 72
Ryan Porteous
defensiveinterventions 9

Albert Rusnák
totalshots 2
Jackson Ragen
Pass 39
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
defensiveinterventions 18
Andy Thomas
SV 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAFC	SEA
Fouls	15	15
Yellow Cards	1	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	4
Corner Kicks	12	2
Saves	0	7
Possession	60.8	39.2
SHOTS	24	5
ON GOAL	8	2
On Target %	0.3	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	495	293
Passes	563	370
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	8	3
Crosses	27	9
Cross %	0.3	0.3
Long Balls	50	53
Accurate Long Balls	29	18
Long Balls %	0.6	0.3
Blocked Shots	8	0
Effective Tackles	6	15
Tackles	7	24
Tackle %	0.9	0.6
Interceptions	9	13
Effective Clearances	7	30
Clearances	7	30

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

43%

At lock LAFC 1.20–1.24 SEA · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 43% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

A. Sieb · LAFC
Forward
M. Delgado · LAFC
Midfielder
R. Porteous · LAFC
Defender
A. Rusnák · SEA
Midfielder
J. Ragen · SEA
Defender
K. Kossa-Rienzi · SEA
Midfielder

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

LAFC vs Seattle pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 43% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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